How Will Microchip Technology Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Microchip Technology (NASDAQ:MCHP) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $53 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.4 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $277 Mil in operating profits and a net income of $-69 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Microchip Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 18% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.8%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -2.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.6% | 1.1% | -16.2% |
| 11/6/2025 | -5.2% | -7.6% | 13.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.6% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 12.6% | 23.7% | 39.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -2.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.8% | -10.4% | -21.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.6% | -8.4% | -2.1% |
| 5/6/2024 | -1.8% | -1.3% | 1.0% |
| 2/1/2024 | -1.6% | -1.5% | 2.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 3.8% | 0.1% | 15.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | -6.8% | -6.9% | -7.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.1% | -3.8% | -0.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | 1.0% | 0.4% | -2.6% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.4% | 24.3% | 29.4% |
| 8/2/2022 | 5.7% | -1.8% | -5.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | 6.1% | 2.5% | 7.6% |
| 2/3/2022 | -1.3% | 1.0% | -11.9% |
| 11/4/2021 | 3.4% | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| 8/3/2021 | 0.5% | 2.5% | 6.3% |
| 5/6/2021 | 2.2% | -3.0% | 5.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 1.6% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -3.4% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 24.3% | 39.6% |
| Max Negative | -10.6% | -10.4% | -21.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 35.4% | 31.1% | 14.5% |
| 3Y History | 42.7% | 43.7% | 24.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Microchip Technology stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Microchip Technology. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| MCHP Earnings Dates | MCHP | TXN |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.6% | 14.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -5.2% | -10.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | -6.6% | -12.9% |
| 5/8/2025 | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -2.3% | -8.0% |
| 11/5/2024 | -1.8% | 5.1% |
| 8/1/2024 | -10.6% | -1.9% |
| 5/6/2024 | -1.8% | 9.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | -1.6% | -7.7% |
| 11/2/2023 | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | -6.8% | -7.0% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.1% | -4.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.4% | -2.7% |
| 8/2/2022 | 5.7% | 10.9% |
| 5/9/2022 | 6.1% | -1.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | -1.3% | 1.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 3.4% | -2.4% |
| 8/3/2021 | 0.5% | -2.0% |
| CORRELATION | 41.5% |
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