Would You Still Hold MARA Stock If It Fell Another 30%?
MARA (MARA) stock is down 8.7% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around its substantial earnings and revenue misses, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where MARA stands today.
- Size: MARA is a $2.9 Bil company with $907 Mil in revenue currently trading at $8.01.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 38.2% and operating margin of -90.6%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 1.25 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.08
- Valuation: MARA stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of -2.2 and P/EBIT multiple of -2.2
- Has returned (median) -29.6% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See MARA Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Risky. For details, see Buy or Sell MARA Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is MARA stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose MARA stock falls another 20-30% to $6 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- MARA stock fell 95.9% from a high of $76.09 on 9 November 2021 to $3.15 on 28 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $31.07 on 27 December 2023 , and currently trades at $8.01
| MARA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -95.9% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- MARA stock fell 68.5% from a high of $1.26 on 12 February 2020 to $0.40 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 27 July 2020
| MARA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -68.5% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 131 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- MARA stock fell 97.4% from a high of $34.08 on 25 January 2017 to $0.88 on 31 December 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 February 2021
| MARA | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -97.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 406 days | 120 days |
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