Is MARA Stock A Buy Today, Before Any AI Leases Are Signed?
The hopeful view of MARA (MARA) is that it is becoming a power and data center business, not only a Bitcoin miner. Management expects its power portfolio to reach about 4.8 gigawatts once pending deals close, more than double today’s capacity. For that to pay off, the deals must close and turn into AI leases, and MARA’s Bitcoin must carry it until then. The Long Ridge power deal looks close to a decision. The Bitcoin cushion is holding, but much of it is now pledged against loans.
Will MARA Close Its Power Deals And Sign Tenants?
Not yet, but the deal part looks near. MARA is buying Long Ridge in a deal valued at $1.5 billion, including debt. The purchase adds land next to its Hannibal campus, where MARA wants to build for AI customers.
The deal closes only after FERC approval. On its second-quarter 2026 call in August, management said it had not received any feedback yet and did not think anything at this stage would block approval. It expected a reply before year end, and likely much sooner.
The leases are the part still missing. Management said it remains confident it can sign at least two leases before year end. But at Hannibal, asked whether it was waiting on Long Ridge, management said it was holding off on signing a lease. So a Hannibal lease depends on the approval.
If the deal closes, MARA gains more than land. Management said roughly 70% of Long Ridge’s output is secured under long term contracts. That would give MARA income that does not depend on the Bitcoin price. The rest of its business still depends on the Bitcoin price.
Can MARA’s Bitcoin Pay The Bills Until Tenants Arrive?
So far, yes, but more of the cushion is now spoken for. MARA ended the second quarter of 2026 with $421 million in cash. It also held 35.6 thousand Bitcoin, worth about $2.1 billion at the time.
Much of that Bitcoin is now borrowed against. MARA added $600 million in borrowings secured by its Bitcoin, and 54% of its holdings are pledged as collateral. It also expects to take on about $900 million of Long Ridge’s debt when that deal closes.
The operating business is not adding cash to that cushion: its operating cash flow over the last twelve months was negative $0.9 billion. Over the same period, MARA’s operating margin was -126%, which means its operating loss was bigger than its sales. The S&P 500’s operating margin is 18.6%.
Each Bitcoin MARA mined also took more energy to produce. At MARA’s own sites, the energy cost per Bitcoin rose to $38.7 thousand from $33.7 thousand a year earlier. Management said the rise came entirely from global mining difficulty, which it does not control.
What Does MARA’s Price Tag Leave Out?
The usual price-to-earnings ratio does not work for MARA, because it has no earnings. Instead, the stock trades at 6.3 times its sales, against 3.1 times for the S&P 500. Quarterly sales fell to $175 million in the second quarter of 2026 from $239 million a year earlier. The main cause was a 28% decrease in Bitcoin’s average price.
So the sales multiple rests on revenue that moves with Bitcoin. If leases are signed, more of MARA’s revenue could come from contracts instead. If they are not, the stock stays tied to a coin price MARA cannot set.
The multiple also hides how hard Bitcoin can swing the reported numbers. Management said every $10 thousand change in the Bitcoin price moves the value of its coins by about $350 million on the income statement, an unrealized, non-cash mark. With 54% of those coins pledged, a fall in Bitcoin shrinks the asset that backs MARA’s loans. In the 2022 inflation shock, the stock suffered an 84% price drop from peak to trough, compared to a 24% total return loss for the S&P 500.
As of the August call, the Long Ridge deal was close to a decision, and the Bitcoin cushion was holding, though much of it is pledged. The next event is the FERC ruling on Long Ridge, which management expected before year end, followed by the lease signings it targets by then. An approval plus two signed leases would give MARA contracted income that does not depend on Bitcoin. A delay, or leases slipping past year end, would leave the stock tied to the Bitcoin price and to Bitcoin holdings that are already partly pledged against loans.
How To Act On MARA?
