Can Cars And Data Centers Carry Qualcomm Stock Past Apple?

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock is up about 37% over the past six months, even after falling 21% over the past three. The case for the next leg rests outside phones, where management expects growth fast enough to cover a shrinking Apple business. The first real test arrives in the December quarter, when management expects its two custom data center wins to start producing revenue.

Qualcomm stock has moved fast before. It has gained more than 30% in under two months 12 times since 2010, most recently in 2026. It is up 9.8% over the past year and sits about 29% below its 52-week high.

Where Is Qualcomm Already Growing Outside Phones?

Cars are the proof so far. Automotive sales rose 61% year over year in fiscal Q3 2026, another record quarter. In April management expected to leave fiscal 2026 at an annual run rate above $6 billion. By July it had raised that to about $7 billion.

Part of the growth comes from more silicon in each car. BMW chose Qualcomm as its lead compute silicon provider for its next-generation ADAS and digital cockpit. And management said in July that the fifth-generation Snapdragon digital chassis, which it calls the largest content jump between generations in Qualcomm’s history, would start ramping in September.

Can That Growth Cover What Apple Takes Away?

Apple is leaving faster than planned, and Qualcomm’s own supply limits are part of the reason. The company now expects its share of Apple’s new iPhone launch to fall materially below the 20% it had assumed. Management forecasts Apple product revenue falling about 50% from the September quarter to the December quarter. For that quarter it expects Android growth to significantly offset the drop. The non-handset business is the fiscal 2027 answer, and management expects its growth to replace all of Apple’s fiscal 2026 product revenue.

Management’s answer is the rest of the business. Qualcomm expects non-handset revenue growth over the prior year to jump from 24% in fiscal 2026 to more than 60% in fiscal 2027, growth it says will replace all of Apple’s fiscal 2026 product revenue. Data centers are the new part of that plan. Qualcomm has two custom silicon wins at global-scale hyperscalers, holds purchase orders, and has begun wafer production.

The customer count has grown across two calls. In April management described one custom silicon engagement with a leading hyperscaler. By July there were two.

Management sizes data center revenue at $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029. Both sit inside a non-handset target of $40 billion by fiscal 2029, nearly double its earlier goal. Trailing revenue is $44.07 billion, so the target is close to the size of today’s whole company. For a company this large, a goal that size is not incremental.

What Would Prove Qualcomm’s Data Center Plan Works?

The doubt is execution. The CEO concedes the data center business is just starting and that investors want proof a new entrant can deliver. The first proof is revenue from the two custom silicon wins in the December quarter. If it arrives on time, the fiscal 2027 plan gets its first hard number.

The upside case has a date. While you wait for the December quarter, our guidance momentum screen shows which other companies are raising their outlooks.

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