How Will Lululemon Athletica Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, June 4, 2026. The company has $15 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $11 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Lululemon Athletica’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 6.7%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -15%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/17/2026 | 3.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 12/11/2025 | 9.6% | 15.0% | 13.3% |
| 9/4/2025 | -18.6% | -19.6% | -14.8% |
| 6/5/2025 | -19.8% | -25.3% | -28.7% |
| 3/27/2025 | -14.2% | -25.1% | -21.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 15.9% | 12.9% | 14.1% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.2% | -2.0% | 4.8% |
| 6/5/2024 | 4.8% | 0.5% | -4.6% |
| 3/21/2024 | -15.8% | -18.4% | -24.4% |
| 12/7/2023 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% |
| 8/31/2023 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 0.4% |
| 3/28/2023 | 12.7% | 14.5% | 18.0% |
| 12/8/2022 | -12.8% | -13.2% | -17.4% |
| 9/1/2022 | 6.7% | 18.4% | -0.8% |
| 3/29/2022 | 9.6% | 10.2% | 5.4% |
| 12/9/2021 | -1.8% | -6.3% | -16.4% |
| 9/8/2021 | 10.5% | 10.0% | 5.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 10.1% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -15.0% | -18.4% | -16.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.9% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -25.3% | -28.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 59.1% | 25.9% | -31.8% |
| 3Y History | 74.2% | 23.3% | -38.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Lululemon Athletica stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Lululemon Athletica. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LULU Earnings Dates | LULU | DECK | VFC | RL |
| 9/4/2025 | -18.6% | N/A* | N/A* | 13.2% |
| 6/5/2025 | -19.8% | -14.1% | 3.6% | -0.8% |
| 12/5/2024 | 15.9% | N/A* | N/A* | 5.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.2% | N/A* | 12.1% | 7.1% |
| 6/5/2024 | 4.8% | 20.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| 12/7/2023 | 5.4% | N/A* | N/A* | 12.6% |
| 8/31/2023 | 6.0% | N/A* | N/A* | -4.6% |
| 12/8/2022 | -12.8% | N/A* | N/A* | 17.5% |
| 9/1/2022 | 6.7% | N/A* | N/A* | -6.9% |
| CORRELATION | 100.0% | 73.9% | -1.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after LULU
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