Would You Still Hold Lowe’s Companies Stock If It Fell 30%?

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LOW: Lowe's Companies logo
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Lowe's Companies

Lowe’s Companies (LOW) stock is up 5.3% in 21 trading days. The rally reflects renewed optimism around its Q3 earnings beat and strong Pro segment sales, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?

Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Lowe’s Companies stands today.

  • Size: Lowe’s Companies is a $134 Bil company with $84 Bil in revenue currently trading at $240.44.
  • Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 0.6% and operating margin of 12.2%.
  • Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.33 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.01
  • Valuation: Lowe’s Companies stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 19.8 and P/EBIT multiple of 12.9
  • Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 146% within a year. See LOW Dip Buy Analysis.

These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Moderate valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell LOW Stock

That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is LOW stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose LOW stock falls 20-30% to $168 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.

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2022 Inflation Shock

  • LOW stock fell 34.3% from a high of $261.38 on 10 December 2021 to $171.61 on 16 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 September 2024
  • Since then, the stock increased to a high of $284.05 on 16 October 2024 , and currently trades at $240.44

  LOW S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -34.3% -25.4%
Time to Full Recovery 830 days 464 days

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

  • LOW stock fell 48.6% from a high of $126.57 on 20 February 2020 to $65.02 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 27 May 2020

  LOW S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -48.6% -33.9%
Time to Full Recovery 70 days 148 days

 
2018 Correction

  • LOW stock fell 26.4% from a high of $116.84 on 21 September 2018 to $85.96 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 April 2019

  LOW S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -26.4% -19.8%
Time to Full Recovery 112 days 120 days

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

  • LOW stock fell 61.7% from a high of $34.93 on 23 February 2007 to $13.39 on 6 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 23 November 2012

  LOW S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -61.7% -56.8%
Time to Full Recovery 1,358 days 1,480 days

 
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