What Could Stop Lowe’s Stock Over The Next Six Months?
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Shares of Lowe’s Companies (LOW) have climbed 19.6% since October 5, 2026, outpacing a 2.6% loss for the S&P 500. Earlier, in August, management cut its full-year 2026 sales outlook to about $92 billion, down from $93 billion, to reflect current consumer demand and housing trends. Below are the events most likely to move Lowe’s stock over the next six months. Which of them matters most for Lowe’s shareholders?
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Weak home building weighs on Lowe’s builder-supply businesses, Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group | second half of fiscal 2026 | Against the stock |
| Whether rivals cut prices on seasonal goods again, as they did in July 2026 | second half of fiscal 2026 | Against the stock |
| Home Depot’s quarterly report, a read on home improvement demand | November 2026 | Either way |
| Lowe’s third-quarter report, guided to flat comparable sales and adjusted earnings per share about 7% lower | November 2026 | Either way |
| Whether Lowe’s reaches its full-year sales outlook of about $92 billion | full year fiscal 2026 | Either way |
Lowe’s Third-Quarter Report In November
Lowe’s own third-quarter report, expected in November 2026, matters most because it is the first set of results since management lowered its outlook. The earnings calendar lists the release for November 18, before the market opens. For the quarter, management guided to comparable sales in line with a roughly flat full year, alongside adjusted earnings per share about 7% below a year earlier. Management also said spending on do-it-yourself projects remains under pressure. Against that guide, comparable sales and adjusted earnings per share are the measures to watch when Lowe’s reports in November 2026.
Slower Home Building And Lowe’s Builder Businesses
Management expects weak home building to keep pressing on Lowe’s through the second half of fiscal 2026. The pressure falls on two businesses Lowe’s bought to win larger professional customers: Foundation Building Materials, acquired for $8.8 billion in October 2025, and Artisan Design Group, which installs flooring, cabinets and countertops for home builders. Elevated mortgage rates continue to suppress new home construction, hurting both sales and profit at the two businesses, management said. The acquisitions also diluted gross margin in the quarter ended July 2026, management said, so gross margin is the measure to watch in November 2026.
Rivals’ Price Cuts On Seasonal Goods
Competitors cut prices on grills, patio and live goods in July 2026, and management said those rivals paid for the cuts with tariff refunds. Lowe’s chose not to match some of those promotions. The July results showed the impact, management said, with comparable sales falling 1.2% that month. A shift in the timing of the July 4 holiday also took about 75 basis points off July’s comparable sales, management said. Management called the price cuts transitory and said it does not expect them in the second half of fiscal 2026, because it sees no more tariff refunds coming to competitors. That is management’s forecast, not a result, and Lowe’s is itself filing for more refunds that it left out of its outlook. Comparable transactions are the measure to watch in November 2026.
Can You Hold Lowe’s Stock Through These Dates?
Lowe’s stock has already shown what a bad stretch looks like. From February 13 to October 5, 2026, the shares fell 37.5% from close to close. Holding through the November report and the rest of the housing slowdown means accepting the risk of another fall of that size. The risk is worth taking only if your holding is small enough that a repeat would not force you to sell, and if you judge Lowe’s by its comparable sales and gross margin in November 2026 rather than by its price in between.
Who Is Watching Your Portfolio’s Risk When You’re Not?
Lowe’s Companies is one risk to keep an eye on, and most portfolios hold many. Watching all of them, day after day, is hard to do alone. Our partner advisory firm builds portfolios on Trefis research, starting with the HQ Portfolio, whose edge has been limiting losses when markets fall. Talk it through on a free 30-minute call, and bring your hardest questions.
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