How Will Eli Lilly Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $783 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $65 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $30 Bil in operating profits and net income of $21 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Eli Lilly’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 4.5%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 2.1% | -1.8% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | 13.8% | 30.2% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | -11.5% | -2.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
| 1/14/2025 | -6.6% | -6.9% | 9.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -10.8% | -12.6% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 4.0% | 10.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.2% | 4.4% | 10.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.7% | 11.7% | 5.5% |
| 8/8/2023 | 14.9% | 18.7% | 23.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 3.7% | 14.6% | 13.9% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.5% | -0.5% | -6.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.6% | -2.9% | -1.2% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 10.3% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.4% | -3.0% | 5.2% |
| 10/26/2021 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 7.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 6.4% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -6.9% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 30.2% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -13.6% | -17.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 21.1% | 1.0% | -18.4% |
| 3Y History | 19.6% | -5.4% | -18.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Eli Lilly stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Eli Lilly. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| LLY Earnings Dates | LLY | JNJ |
| 2/4/2026 | 10.3% | 7.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | 3.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -14.1% | 4.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -11.7% | 0.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -2.1% |
| 8/8/2024 | 9.5% | 2.3% |
| 4/30/2024 | 6.0% | 0.1% |
| 2/6/2024 | -0.2% | -1.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.7% | -3.7% |
| 8/8/2023 | 14.9% | 2.9% |
| 4/27/2023 | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -3.5% | -1.6% |
| 11/1/2022 | -2.6% | 4.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.6% | 0.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | 4.3% | 0.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | -2.4% | 3.1% |
| 10/26/2021 | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| 8/3/2021 | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| CORRELATION | 8.4% |
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