How Will Kroger Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Kroger (NYSE: KR) is set to report its earnings on Friday, September 11, 2026. The company has $37 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $148 billion, and it was operationally profitable, with $1.9 billion in operating profits and net income of $1.0 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Kroger’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 6.3%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 6/18/2026 | -8.4% | -6.6% | -5.6% |
| 3/5/2026 | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| 12/4/2025 | -4.6% | -7.5% | -6.7% |
| 9/11/2025 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 6/20/2025 | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 9/12/2024 | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.3% | -5.0% | 4.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| 11/30/2023 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 4.7% |
| 9/8/2023 | 3.1% | 0.6% | -4.6% |
| 6/15/2023 | -2.7% | -2.4% | -1.4% |
| 3/2/2023 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.1% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.6% | -4.6% | -9.4% |
| 9/9/2022 | 7.4% | -1.0% | -11.1% |
| 6/16/2022 | -2.1% | -6.2% | -6.6% |
| 3/3/2022 | 11.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| 12/2/2021 | 11.0% | 6.5% | 12.6% |
| 9/10/2021 | -7.5% | -11.4% | -14.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.0% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.4% | -11.4% | -14.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest correlation here: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the same direction over the following 21D window. Although this relationship holds over the 5-year window (+24.0%), the more recent 3-year data shows the opposite sign (-42.6%), so check the most current correlation before acting. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -0.5% | 7.6% | 24.0% |
| 3Y History | -15.3% | -18.9% | -42.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Kroger stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Kroger. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KR Earnings Dates | KR | WMT | TGT | CVS |
| 6/18/2026 | -8.4% | -7.3% | -3.9% | N/A* |
| 3/5/2026 | 5.3% | -1.4% | 2.2% | -0.1% |
| 12/4/2025 | -4.6% | 6.5% | -2.8% | N/A* |
| 9/11/2025 | 0.3% | -4.5% | -6.3% | N/A* |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | -6.5% | N/A* | 14.9% |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.3% | 3.0% | -21.4% | N/A* |
| 9/12/2024 | 7.2% | 6.6% | 11.2% | N/A* |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.3% | N/A* | -8.0% | N/A* |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.9% | 3.2% | 12.0% | N/A* |
| 11/30/2023 | 1.4% | -8.1% | 17.8% | -0.4% |
| 9/8/2023 | 3.1% | -2.2% | 3.0% | N/A* |
| 6/15/2023 | -2.7% | 1.3% | 2.6% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2023 | 5.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | N/A* |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.6% | 6.5% | -13.1% | 2.3% |
| 9/9/2022 | 7.4% | 5.1% | -2.7% | N/A* |
| 6/16/2022 | -2.1% | N/A* | -24.9% | N/A* |
| 3/3/2022 | 11.6% | 4.0% | 9.8% | N/A* |
| 12/2/2021 | 11.0% | -2.5% | -4.7% | 5.7% |
| 9/10/2021 | -7.5% | -0.0% | -2.8% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 29.4% | 41.6% | -31.7% | |
* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter
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