How Will Kroger Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Kroger (NYSE:KR) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The company has $45 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $147 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.9 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.7 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Kroger’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.4%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -3.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/11/2025 | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 6/20/2025 | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 9/12/2024 | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.3% | -5.0% | 4.9% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.9% | 11.1% | 13.5% |
| 11/30/2023 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 4.7% |
| 9/8/2023 | 3.1% | 0.6% | -4.6% |
| 6/15/2023 | -2.7% | -2.4% | -1.4% |
| 3/2/2023 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 13.1% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.6% | -4.6% | -9.4% |
| 9/9/2022 | 7.4% | -1.0% | -11.1% |
| 6/16/2022 | -2.1% | -6.2% | -6.6% |
| 3/3/2022 | 11.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| 12/2/2021 | 11.0% | 6.5% | 12.6% |
| 9/10/2021 | -7.5% | -11.4% | -14.4% |
| 6/17/2021 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% |
| 3/4/2021 | 2.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% |
| 12/3/2020 | -4.4% | -3.3% | -0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.0% | -6.6% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -11.4% | -14.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -3.0% | 2.5% | 32.4% |
| 3Y History | -25.8% | -35.8% | -57.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Kroger stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Kroger. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| KR Earnings Dates | KR | WMT | TGT |
| 9/11/2025 | 0.3% | 4.8% | -7.3% |
| 3/3/2025 | -3.0% | 0.4% | N/A* |
| 12/5/2024 | 1.3% | 10.0% | 6.1% |
| 9/12/2024 | 7.2% | 9.2% | -6.8% |
| 6/20/2024 | -3.3% | N/A* | 0.1% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 11/30/2023 | 1.4% | -0.2% | 2.6% |
| 9/8/2023 | 3.1% | 5.2% | -3.9% |
| 6/15/2023 | -2.7% | 4.1% | -14.4% |
| 3/2/2023 | 5.4% | -4.6% | -1.5% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| 9/9/2022 | 7.4% | -1.8% | -1.0% |
| 6/16/2022 | -2.1% | N/A* | -11.6% |
| 3/3/2022 | 11.6% | 0.3% | 2.0% |
| 12/2/2021 | 11.0% | -5.4% | -3.3% |
| 9/10/2021 | -7.5% | -3.2% | -1.2% |
| 6/17/2021 | 4.3% | N/A* | 5.6% |
| 3/4/2021 | 2.5% | -7.4% | -2.1% |
| CORRELATION | 28.8% | 47.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after KR
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