How Will KKR Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
KKR (NYSE:KKR) is set to report its earnings on Friday, November 7, 2025. The company has $106 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $16 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-23 Mil in operating losses and net income of $2.1 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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KKR’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 68% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 2.8%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -5.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.6% | -3.8% | -6.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 6.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -8.5% | -9.4% | -24.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | 3.4% | 1.2% | 13.9% |
| 7/31/2024 | 2.9% | -8.7% | 1.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | 2.2% | 7.0% | 11.8% |
| 2/6/2024 | 5.8% | 10.4% | 9.9% |
| 11/7/2023 | 5.0% | 7.7% | 26.2% |
| 8/7/2023 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| 5/8/2023 | -4.3% | -5.9% | 6.2% |
| 2/7/2023 | 5.2% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% |
| 8/2/2022 | -5.9% | -4.9% | -8.4% |
| 5/3/2022 | 2.6% | -5.8% | 3.2% |
| 2/8/2022 | -6.2% | -14.4% | -22.1% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.0% | 1.6% | -4.5% |
| 8/3/2021 | 2.0% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| 5/4/2021 | -1.1% | 1.5% | -2.0% |
| 2/8/2021 | 2.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -5.9% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 5.8% | 10.4% | 26.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.4% | -24.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 29.6% | 56.2% | 13.7% |
| 3Y History | 27.9% | 52.5% | 19.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of KKR stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before KKR. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR Earnings Dates | KKR | GS | BX | APO | CG |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.6% | 2.1% | -2.9% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 5/1/2025 | 0.2% | 9.9% | 3.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/4/2025 | -8.5% | 4.7% | -3.9% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 10/24/2024 | 3.4% | 0.4% | -0.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 7/31/2024 | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 5/1/2024 | 2.2% | 6.5% | -1.7% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/6/2024 | 5.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/7/2023 | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 0.8% | N/A* |
| 8/7/2023 | 2.7% | 4.4% | -2.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 5/8/2023 | -4.3% | -2.2% | -10.9% | N/A* | 1.6% |
| 2/7/2023 | 5.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.7% | 11.1% | 11.7% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 8/2/2022 | -5.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | N/A* | 0.6% |
| 5/3/2022 | 2.6% | -2.2% | -3.3% | N/A* | 0.3% |
| 2/8/2022 | -6.2% | 4.4% | 9.3% | N/A* | -0.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.0% | 4.4% | 9.5% | N/A* | -1.8% |
| 8/3/2021 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 5.2% | N/A* | -4.4% |
| 5/4/2021 | -1.1% | 4.3% | 7.5% | N/A* | 1.7% |
| 2/8/2021 | 2.8% | 2.0% | 9.8% | N/A* | 1.4% |
| CORRELATION | -25.0% | 8.4% | 100.0% | 12.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after KKR
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