What’s Going To Happen With Joby Aviation Stock Soon?
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Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock lost 44.0% over the six months to October 23, 2026, while the S&P 500 returned 7.0%. Management held to its main promise, however: on its August 5, 2026 call, it said Joby still plans to fly its first passengers before the end of 2026. Below are the events most likely to move Joby Aviation stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Joby reports its September 2026 quarter, with full-year revenue guidance of $115 million to $125 million | November 2026 | Either way |
| Joby uses $385 million to $415 million in cash in the second half of 2026 | second half of 2026 (July to December 2026) | Against the stock |
| At least two aircraft come off the production line | second half of 2026 (July to December 2026) | Either way |
| Joby carries its first passengers | before the end of 2026 | Either way |
| Toyota’s $250 million direct investment in Joby closes | late 2026 or early 2027 | In its favor |
Joby’s First Passenger Flights
Joby’s first passenger flights are due before the end of 2026. Management expects these flights to advance in steps, moving from aircraft carrying only a pilot to nonpaying passengers and then to paying ones, with extensive oversight from the FAA.
That target matters because Joby’s revenue in the June 2026 quarter came mainly from Blade, the passenger business it bought in August 2025, rather than from its own electric air taxis. Even so, the stock trades at 39.7 times its sales over the twelve months to June 2026, against 3.2 times for the S&P 500. Buyers at that price appear to be paying for an air taxi service before Joby has flown a single passenger in its own air taxis. You can watch for a first passenger flight by December 2026, and for whether management keeps that date at its November 2026 report.
How Much Cash Joby Uses Through December 2026
Joby expects to use $385 million to $415 million in cash in the second half of 2026, mostly on certification, manufacturing and getting ready for commercial service. The company entered that half with about $2.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at the end of June 2026, so the guided spending is less than a fifth of what it held.
That spending is still a weight on the stock: until Joby flies paying passengers in its own air taxis, each half year of spending comes out of that cash. Management does expect capital spending in the second half of 2026 to run below the pace of the first half. Cash used in the September 2026 quarter, which Joby is expected to report in November 2026, is the figure to watch.
Toyota’s Investment In Joby
Management said on its August 5, 2026 call that Joby expects Toyota’s $250 million direct investment to close later in 2026 or early in 2027, once the two companies finalize the remaining supply agreements. A senior Toyota manufacturing leader is also set to join Joby’s team.
The Toyota money equals more than half of the cash Joby expects to use in the second half of 2026. If the deal closes in early 2027, that spending comes first from the cash Joby already holds. The date the deal closes is the thing to watch.
Can You Hold Joby Aviation Stock Through These Dates?
Anyone holding the stock over the past year has already sat through a deep fall. The stock fell 73.4% from its close on October 31, 2025 to its close on October 14, 2026, over 238 trading sessions. The stock also swung sharply inside that fall: the largest one-day move was a rise of 21.2% on May 6, 2026.
Owning Joby Aviation through November’s report and the year-end passenger target fits a position small enough that another fall like that one would not force you to sell.
Does This Mean You Should Act On JOBY?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.
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