How Big Could Joby Aviation Stock’s Next Fall Be?

Shares of Joby Aviation (JOBY) lost 24.7% in the month to October 19, 2026. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% over the same period, while peers Archer Aviation and Eve fell about as far. Just five market shocks in our catalogue fall within Joby’s trading history, making them the only guide to how the stock behaves when the broader market drops. If the wider market turns down as well, how far could Joby stock fall, judging by past market shocks?

How Far Joby Stock Has Fallen In Market Shocks

Joby stock recorded its deepest decline during the 2022 inflation shock, losing 51% while the S&P 500 lost 24%. Across all five shocks, the stock posted an average fall of 27.1%, about twice the 13.4% decline for the S&P 500 over the same dates.

Recovering those losses has sometimes taken more than a year. The median time from the low to the earlier high was 3.6 months, but the wait was much longer after Joby’s two deepest falls. The stock needed 16.3 months after the 2022 shock and 13.0 months after the shock in the second half of 2023. In all five shocks, the stock did get back to its earlier high.

A fall like this hurts most when Joby Aviation is a large share of what you own. See how to protect a concentrated position.

Joby Now Has Revenue, And A Larger Loss

Management said on the August 5, 2026 call for fiscal Q2 2026 that most of Joby’s revenue now comes from the Blade passenger business. Revenue reached $116 million over the twelve months to June 30, 2026, up from about $0.1 million a year earlier.

The loss grew with it. Joby’s operating loss was $883 million over those twelve months, compared to $638 million a year earlier. Free cash flow was negative $743 million, against negative $501 million.

The company still holds far more cash than it owes. Joby ended June with about $2.3 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, against total debt of $748 million. A year earlier, its debt was $30.9 million.

Joby Faces A Court Verdict And Heavy Cash Use

A federal jury returned a verdict against Joby in an intellectual property lawsuit filed by parts supplier Aerosonic. The ruling came with damages of over $100 million, according to a report on October 6, 2026.

Making the aircraft is getting harder as well. Management said on the August 5 call that manufacturing is hard, and that building conforming aircraft, those built to the standard regulators require, is a step change in complexity.

Cash use stays heavy. Management said on that call it expects to use $385 million to $415 million in the second half of 2026, mainly for certification, manufacturing and the start of commercial service. Joby’s cash use in fiscal Q3 2026 is the number to watch in the report expected on or around November 4, 2026.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

Joby Aviation holders have just seen how hard one stock can fall. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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