8 Green Days In A Row: Imperial Oil Stock Is Up 13%
Imperial Oil (IMO) stock is on an 8-day winning streak, up 13.4% since the run began. That added about $7.7 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $65.4 billion. The stock closed at $135.24 on Monday, October 19, 1.6% below its 52-week high of $137.39 and 64.0% above its low of $82.47.
How The Streak Stacks Up Against The S&P 500
Returns for IMO and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Monday, October 19 and including dividends:
| Return Period | IMO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 8 Days (Current Streak) | 13.4% | -1.4% |
| 1 Month (21 Trading Days) | 4.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 Months (63 Trading Days) | 9.4% | 2.7% |
| Year To Date | 59.1% | 13.4% |
| 1 Year (252 Trading Days) | 63.0% | 17.4% |
A Stock-Specific Run, Or A Market Move?
The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 1.4% over the same 8 sessions, including dividends, against Imperial Oil’s +13.4%. Over the past three months the stock is up 9.4%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 55 sessions of that window it was down 3.5%.
Is The Business Keeping Up With The Stock?
On the fundamentals, revenue grew 7.0% over the last twelve months, against a median of 12.5% for S&P 500 Energy stocks; its operating margin is 10.4%, versus a median of 22.9%; and the stock trades at 15.7 times trailing earnings against a median of 17.7. The read is mixed: a multiple below the median on one side, revenue growth below the median and margins below the median on the other.
A climb like this is worth respecting, and worth testing. Our Guidance Momentum screen tracks the stocks whose companies just raised their own forward numbers.
For anyone who would rather back the theme than one company, an energy ETF like XLE holds the whole group, not just this stock. It is still a concentrated bet on one theme, which is the gap the portfolio below is built to close.
Momentum Is A Tailwind, Not A Plan
Riding a stock that rises every day feels effortless, and that is precisely the danger: the same momentum that built this run can reverse without notice, and one name’s reversal should never be able to reset your whole year.
That is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is for: about 30 quality businesses screened for the fundamentals that survive momentum’s mood swings, held with rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Watch the runs; own the resilience.