Joby Stock Drops 35% As Cash Burn Concerns Take Over

Joby Aviation (JOBY) is doing a lot right on paper. It has flown over New York City, lined up passenger plans in Dubai, and is making steady progress with the FAA. Still, the stock is down about 35% since January 1. That disconnect is the real story.

Not A Broken Business

This doesn’t look like a company in trouble. Joby made an 18-point jump in the fourth stage of FAA certification, has its first FAA-conforming aircraft in production, and still expects to carry passengers in Dubai in 2026.
The numbers back that up. Q4 EPS came in at -$0.14 versus expectations of -$0.22. Revenue hit $30.84 million, almost double the $16.50 million estimate. For 2026, the company is guiding $105 million to $115 million in revenue, nearly 2x 2025 levels.

So the issue isn’t execution. It’s the cost of getting to the finish line.

The Capital Raise Shock

In late January, Joby raised $1.2 billion. That included $600 million in stock at $11.35 per share and another $600 million in convertible notes.

The reaction was immediate. The stock dropped 10% pre-market, and by the end of the week it was down ~17%. The reason is simple. About 52.86 million new shares means dilution, and the 15% discount didn’t help sentiment.
The raise itself makes sense. Joby needs cash to reach commercialization. But it also told investors the journey will take longer and cost more than expected.

Cash Burn Is the Real Concern

Joby burned $509.89 million in 2025 and expects another $340 million to $370 million in the first half of 2026.

It ended 2025 with $1.4 billion in cash and added $1.2 billion more, so roughly $2.6 billion total. That gives it runway. But at this pace, every delay matters. If revenue doesn’t show up soon, another capital raise becomes a real possibility. See how Joby’s financials compares to its peers, Archer Aviation, Boeing, and Eve.

That’s what the market is pricing in.

FAA Progress Isn’t The Same As Certainty

Joby is ahead of most competitors on FAA certification. But timelines keep stretching.

The FAA’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, launched in September 2025, has added more steps rather than speeding things up. Companies like Archer Aviation have been targeting 2025 or 2026 for years now.

Each delay chips away at investor confidence. For a company burning hundreds of millions, even a few months’ delay is a big deal.

Still Not Cheap

Even after the 35% drop, valuation is demanding. A forward price-to-sales ratio above 100 assumes things go almost perfectly.

Insider selling hasn’t helped either, with roughly $13.2 million to $13.82 million sold over the last 90 days, including a 421,018-share sale by CEO JoeBen Bevirt in April 2026.

See our bull view, How JOBY Stock Rises 8x To $70.

The Bigger Picture

There’s also some geopolitical noise. Tensions in the Persian Gulf have complicated what was supposed to be a key early market, especially in the UAE. Joby had partnered with Uber to integrate air taxis into its app, but timelines there are less certain now.

What Comes Next

The bull case is straightforward. Joby is closer to revenue than ever, has about $2.6 billion in cash, and is targeting first passenger flights in Dubai in 2026. It also plans to scale production to four aircraft per month by 2027.

If certification lands on time and real revenue starts coming in, the story changes quickly.
The bear case is just as clear. Any delay into 2027 likely means more cash burn, another raise, and more dilution.

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