Johnson & Johnson Poised For A Muted Q2?

JNJ: Johnson & Johnson logo
Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson stock (NYSE: JNJ) will report its Q2 2023 results on Thursday, July 20. We expect the company’s revenues to come in at $24.6 billion, marginally below the consensus estimate of $24.7 billion. This would mark year-over-year growth of about 2%. Earnings will likely come in at about $2.60 on a per-share and adjusted basis, broadly aligning with the $2.62 consensus estimate and the $2.59 figure the company reported in the prior-year quarter. See our interactive dashboard analysis on  Johnson & Johnson Earnings Preview for more details on how the company’s revenues and earnings will likely trend for the quarter. So, what are some of the trends that are likely to drive J&J’s results?

The company will likely continue to benefit from market share gains for some of its drugs, including Darzalex, Erleada, and Tremfya. This will help offset the decline in Remicade sales, which faces biosimilar competition. Its MedTech business should benefit from an overall rise in procedure volume and its Abiomed acquisition last year. Looking at Q1 2023, Johnson & Johnson’s revenues were up 6%, led by a 7% rise in MedTech and Consumer Healthcare, while Pharmaceuticals sales were up 4%. Looking at the bottom line, J&J reported earnings of $2.68 per share on an adjusted basis in Q1, compared to the $2.67 figure in the prior-year quarter, as the net margin declined 180 bps to 28.6% in Q1.

Although we expect J&J to post an in-line Q2, we believe its stock has ample room for growth. We estimate Johnson & Johnson’s valuation to be $185 per share, reflecting a 17% upside from its current price of $158. Our forecast is based on a 17x P/E multiple for J&J and expected earnings of $10.65 on a per-share and adjusted basis for the full-year 2023. The 17x figure aligns with the stock’s last three and five-year averages.

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While J&J stock has room for gains, check out how other Johnson & Johnson Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a portfolio that aims for long-term growth? Here’s a value portfolio that’s done much better than the market since 2016.

 Returns Jul 2023
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 JNJ Return -4% -11% 37%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 16% 100%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 4% 24% 298%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/13/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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