Jabil Stock To $156?

Jabil (JBL) stock has fallen 7.1% during the past day, and is currently trading at $223.44. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to sell JBL stock. We have, overall, a pessimistic view of the stock, and a price of $156 may not be out of reach. We believe there are a few things to fear in JBL stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive.

Below is our assessment:

Ask yourself – Is holding JBL stock risky? Of course it is. High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $24 Bil in market cap, Jabil provides electronics design, production, and product management services, including integrated circuit design, firmware development, and rapid prototyping across manufacturing and diversified service segments.

[1] Valuation Looks Moderate

This table highlights how JBL is valued vs broader market. For more details see: JBL Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Inconsistent

• Jabil has seen its top line shrink at an average rate of -3.3% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 3.2% from $29 Bil to $30 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 18.5% to $8.3 Bil in the most recent quarter from $7.0 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how JBL is growing vs broader market. For more details see: JBL Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak

• JBL last 12 month operating income was $1.4 Bil representing operating margin of 4.8%
• With cash flow margin of 5.5%, it generated nearly $1.6 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, JBL generated nearly $657 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 2.2%

This table highlights how JBL profitability vs broader market. For more details see: JBL Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Very Strong

• JBL Debt was $3.4 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $24 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 14.0%
• JBL Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $1.9 Bil of $19 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 10.4%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

JBL has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• JBL stock fell 29.4% from a high of $71.51 on 29 December 2021 to $50.52 on 5 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 November 2022
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $240.39 on 4 January 2026 , and currently trades at $223.44

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• JBL stock fell 57.2% from a high of $43.22 on 17 January 2020 to $18.49 on 20 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 17 December 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• JBL stock fell 88.6% from a high of $27.64 on 23 February 2007 to $3.16 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 March 2017

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read JBL Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.