How Will Intuitive Surgical Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

April 16th, 2025 by Trefis Team
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ISRG: Intuitive Surgical logo
ISRG
Intuitive Surgical
Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) is scheduled to release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. Historically, over the past five years, ISRG stock has shown a positive one-day reaction to earnings announcements in 58% of cases, with a median positive return of 9% and a maximum positive return of 11%. For event-driven traders looking to capitalize on this pattern, two primary strategies exist: first, understanding these historical probabilities and positioning before the earnings release; second, analyzing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the announcement to inform subsequent positioning.
Fundamentally, ISRG is likely to continue benefiting from strong global procedure volume growth and increasing adoption of its new da Vinci 5 surgical systems. This positive outlook is reflected in consensus estimates, which anticipate earnings of $1.73 per share on sales of $2.19 billion for the upcoming quarter. This represents an improvement over the prior-year quarter’s earnings of $1.50 per share on sales of $1.89 billion.

Currently, ISRG has a market capitalization of $174 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $8.4 billion in revenue and demonstrated strong operational profitability with $2.3 billion in both operating profit and net income. Now, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

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Intuitive Surgical’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
  • There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
  • However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • Median of the 11 positive returns = 9.0%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -2.8%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

ISRG Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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