Can Iovance Stock Fall 50%?

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Iovance Biotherapeutics (IOVA) stock has fallen 50% or more within a calendar year in 6 of the last 10 years. Whether the shares repeat that pattern likely depends most on a single therapy called Amtagvi. The treatment accounted for about $91 million of Iovance’s $99.3 million revenue in the second quarter of 2026. Amtagvi’s sales are growing fast, and the company’s shares have climbed 541.1% over the past year, compared with 14.0% for the S&P 500. So what is behind Amtagvi’s growth?

Why Are Amtagvi’s Sales Rising So Fast?

Management points to patient demand. Amtagvi revenue rose about 68% from a year earlier in the second quarter of 2026, which management called a robust increase in demand and adoption. On the August 6, 2026 call, management added that this growth reflected organic demand for the product, not a timing issue with shipments.

The therapy is also reaching more locations. Iovance had more than 95 centers offering Amtagvi, and management expects that figure to reach at least 110 by the end of the year. Management also said its five-year durability data are convincing physicians to use Amtagvi earlier in treatment.

Iovance relied on Amtagvi slightly more in the second quarter than it did a year earlier, with total revenue rising at a slightly slower pace of 66%. This shift is mild. Proleukin made up nearly all the rest of sales, and its performance is not independent of Amtagvi. Management expects Proleukin sales to grow in step with Amtagvi’s over the rest of the year and make up about 16% of total revenue, a larger share than in the second quarter. Proleukin’s second-quarter sales were about $9 million, down from $11 million in the first quarter because of the timing of wholesaler stocking.

What Amtagvi’s Sales Mean For Iovance’s Losses

Iovance still loses money, though far less than a year ago. Its operating loss was $51.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared with $114 million a year earlier. Gross margin rose to 56.1% from 18.5%. Management said the quarter benefited from higher Amtagvi volume, cost cuts and the company’s first full quarter of making the therapy entirely in-house.

By management’s account, Iovance earns a higher margin as it sells more Amtagvi, but the company has not yet reached a profit. Management’s stated priorities are to grow revenue, expand margins and manage spending to reach profitability as quickly as possible. Until then, Iovance is using cash. Free cash flow was negative $66.3 million in the quarter, and management expects its cash to fund operations into the second half of 2028.

Is Amtagvi’s Growth Already In Iovance’s Price?

The share price likely assumes much more growth to come. Iovance trades at 20.5 times its sales over the past twelve months, compared with 3.2 times for the S&P 500.

Demand, though, has run ahead of the company’s own forecasts. Amtagvi sales beat the company’s second-quarter guidance of $79 million to $81 million. On September 29, 2026, Iovance raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $410 million to $420 million, from $350 million to $370 million, citing strong U.S. demand for Amtagvi and Proleukin. Management also sees an opportunity in non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer that is roughly 7 times the size of advanced melanoma, and the company is working toward a supplemental filing with regulators in 2027.

Shareholders have reason for some worry, but not alarm. Nearly all of Iovance’s revenue comes from one therapy, and the company still loses money. Amtagvi is still growing, however, and the losses are far smaller than they were a year ago. Amtagvi’s sales are what would make another 50% fall more or less likely. Iovance is expected to report its third-quarter results in November 2026, and Amtagvi’s revenue for the quarter is the figure to watch.

Does This Mean You Should Act On IOVA?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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