The Long Climb Back For Ionis Stock

A look at the company’s history of deep drawdowns shows the real risk shareholders are carrying today.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) stock fell 24% on July 9, 2026, a sharp move for any holder. The company, which develops RNA-targeted medicines, is at a pivotal moment. The market is weighing a major new FDA approval for its drug TRYNGOLZA (olezarsen) to treat severe hypertriglyceridemia against the recent failure of its eplontersen cardiovascular trial. This backdrop of high-stakes news makes the question of downside risk particularly urgent.

That single-day drop was steep, but it doesn’t capture what happens in a true, sustained market shock. The real question for a shareholder is how far this stock can fall when the entire market is selling off, and whether you have the conviction to ride that out.

A 43% Fall During The 2016 Energy Sector Downturn

The history here is clear: when the broad market falls, Ionis tends to fall further. Across the 10 major shocks it has traded through, the stock’s average peak-to-trough fall was about 21%, compared to about 14% for the S&P 500. Its single deepest drawdown was a steep 43% during a period of falling oil prices from 2014-2016.

The stock has been hit hardest during periods of broad economic fear, such as the 2015-2016 period of global currency concerns, and the 2020 pandemic-driven market decline. That amplified downside is the risk you carry.

A Recovery Can Take 22 Months

Surviving the fall is one thing; waiting for the recovery is another. For the shocks it has fully recovered from, Ionis has taken a median of about 4 months to climb back to its pre-shock high. But patience can be severely tested.

The slowest recovery, following a period of falling oil prices from 2014-2016, took about 22 months to reclaim its prior peak. That’s nearly two years of sitting underwater, and an easy past recovery is never a guarantee for the next one.

Every Major Shock Ionis Pharmaceuticals Has Traded Through

Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.

[1] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[2] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[3] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[4] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[5] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[6] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[7] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[8] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[9] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[10] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.

From Pipeline Hopes To Commercial Sales

The Ionis of the past is not the Ionis of today. The company that endured those earlier shocks was largely a development-stage biotech. Today, it is a commercial business with multiple approved medicines like TRYNGOLZA and DAWNZERA, generating $1.06 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue. Management recently raised its peak sales estimate for olezarsen to over $3 billion.

Yet, risks remain. The recent failure of the eplontersen trial is a stark reminder of pipeline risk, and the market is watching the launch trajectory for olezarsen amid questions about payer access. The business is more substantial, but its volatility suggests the historical pattern of sharp drawdowns is still a relevant guide.

What This Means For Your Ionis Pharmaceuticals Position

What does a deep drawdown feel like in your portfolio? At 10% weight, that worst-case 43% drop would have cut about 4% from an entire portfolio. At a 20% weight, that hit grows to about 9%. This is the concrete risk you carry.

The one lever you fully control is not the market or the pipeline, but your own exposure. How much of your capital is tied to this single story is the critical question to answer.

How Far Could Your Other Holdings Fall?

You have just seen, in hard numbers, how far Ionis Pharmaceuticals has fallen when markets break, and how long it took to climb back. The natural next question is how much the rest of what you own could fall, and the options market puts a forward number on exactly that: the expected move it prices in for each stock over the year ahead. Our Expected Move screen ranks which S&P 500 names carry the widest priced-in swings, so you can see whether your other holdings are sitting on more downside than you have accounted for.

You Just Saw The Downside. Now Scale It.

The piece above put a number on how far this stock could fall. That math is unsettling on any position – but on one that has quietly become a large share of your net worth, that drawdown is not a scare story, it is your money. And the usual escape, selling to diversify, hands a slice of the gains to the IRS. There is a way to cap that downside and diversify out without the tax hit.