How Vail Resorts Stock Might React To Upcoming Earnings?

March 7th, 2025 by Trefis Team

Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN) is set to report its earnings on Monday, March 10, 2025. The consensus forecast is for earnings of $6.32 per share on $1.14 billion in sales, reflecting a 10% year-over-year growth in earnings and a 6% year-over-year increase in sales. The company has $5.9 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $536 Mil in operating profits and net income of $233 Mil.

While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader. Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Vail Resorts’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post earnings returns:

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  • In the past 5 years, 20 earnings data points recorded, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns seen about 55% of the times.
  • In fact, this percentage has increased to 58% if we consider last 3 year data instead of 5.
  • Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.5%, and median of the 9 negative returns =-4.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

MTN observed 5-Day and 21-Day returns post earnings

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has highest correlation and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

MTN Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock-reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on past post-earnings performance of Vail Resorts stock compared with stock performance of peers that reported earnings just prior to Vail Resorts. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one day (1D) return.

MTN peers post-earnings one day return

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