After Rough Month, Intel Stock Set For Come Back?

+30.84%
Upside
29.41
Market
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Trefis
INTC: Intel logo
INTC
Intel

Intel stock (NASDAQ: INTC) is down almost 10% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing worse than the S&P 500, which was down 4.9% over this period. However, if you look at the change over the last five days, there has been some bounce back and the stock has performed better against the broader markets, rising 4.8%. Intel’s most recent Q2 ’22 earnings, saw revenue dropping from $19.6 billion in Q2 ’21 to $15.3 billion in Q2 ’22. Additionally, COGS and other operating expenses in fact rose, and EBIT margin shrank from 28.3% to -4.5% over this period. Due to this, net income dropped and EPS came in lower at -$0.11 in Q2 ’22, against $1.25 in Q2 ’21.

Now, is INTC stock set to continue its recovery after the poor monthly performance? We believe that there is a decent 59% chance of a rise in INTC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on INTC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Intel (INTC) Stock Return. 

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Twenty-One Day: INTC -9.6%, vs. S&P500 -4.9%; Underperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • INTC stock lost 9.6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.9%
  • A change of -9.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 215 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 215 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 127 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: INTC -2%, vs. S&P500 0.06%; Underperformed market

(29% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • INTC stock lost 2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of 0.06%
  • A change of -2% or more over ten trading days is a 29% likelihood event, which has occurred 739 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 739 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 396 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: INTC 4.8%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Outperformed market

(8% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)

  • INTC stock gained 4.8% over a five-day trading period ending 10/17/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up 1.9% over this period.
  • A change of 4.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 193 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 193 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 103 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 INTC Return 1% -50% -28%
 S&P 500 Return 4% -22% 66%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 3% -24% 200%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/18/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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