How Will MongoDB Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. The company has $36 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.6 billion, and it was operationally loss-making with an operating loss of $108 million and a net loss of $29 million. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Don’t get too attached to MDB stock, even if you love it. Stocks crash. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio lets you navigate that risk.
MongoDB’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 18%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -20%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 5/28/2026 | 3.0% | 16.7% | 3.8% |
| 3/2/2026 | -22.2% | -16.4% | -24.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | 2.6% | 0.3% | 12.8% |
| 8/26/2025 | 38.0% | 46.0% | 47.1% |
| 6/4/2025 | 12.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| 3/5/2025 | -26.9% | -25.7% | -38.2% |
| 12/9/2024 | -16.9% | -24.1% | -30.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | 18.3% | 14.7% | 10.0% |
| 5/30/2024 | -23.9% | -25.8% | -15.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | -6.9% | -10.5% | -11.8% |
| 12/5/2023 | -10.7% | -9.4% | -15.7% |
| 8/31/2023 | 3.0% | -1.1% | -8.5% |
| 6/1/2023 | 28.0% | 27.5% | 40.0% |
| 3/8/2023 | -8.4% | -7.2% | -5.6% |
| 12/6/2022 | 23.2% | 42.4% | 17.4% |
| 8/31/2022 | -25.3% | -23.3% | -38.5% |
| 6/1/2022 | 18.6% | 23.7% | 11.2% |
| 3/8/2022 | 18.6% | 5.9% | 49.7% |
| 12/6/2021 | 16.4% | 15.3% | -0.1% |
| 9/2/2021 | 26.3% | 21.7% | 10.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 18.5% | 16.7% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -19.6% | -16.4% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 38.0% | 46.0% | 49.7% |
| Max Negative | -26.9% | -25.8% | -38.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 1D_21D shows the strongest correlation here: if the 1D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the same direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 11.4% | 36.8% | 17.8% |
| 3Y History | 32.6% | 26.3% | 22.2% |
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as MDB, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.