Is Humana Stock Built to Withstand More Downside?
Humana (HUM) stock is down 36.6% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around Humana’s disappointing 2026 outlook and Medicare Star Ratings impact, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Humana stands today.
- Size: Humana is a $21 Bil company with $126 Bil in revenue currently trading at $175.40.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 9.9% and operating margin of 0.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.6 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.44
- Valuation: Humana stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 16.3 and P/EBIT multiple of 9.0
- Has returned (median) 49% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See HUM Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Attractive. For details, see Buy or Sell HUM Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is HUM stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose HUM stock falls another 20-30% to $123 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- HUM stock fell 24.6% from a high of $563.00 on 3 November 2022 to $424.29 on 13 July 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $524.21 on 16 October 2023 , and currently trades at $175.40
| HUM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -24.6% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- HUM stock fell 43.6% from a high of $380.20 on 13 February 2020 to $214.43 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 April 2020
| HUM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -43.6% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 38 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- HUM stock fell 34.2% from a high of $353.98 on 7 November 2018 to $232.89 on 17 April 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 16 December 2019
| HUM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -34.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 243 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- HUM stock fell 78.4% from a high of $86.98 on 14 January 2008 to $18.77 on 5 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 November 2011
| HUM | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -78.4% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 977 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about HUM stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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