With Hershey Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
Hershey (HSY) stock is up 14% in last week. The rally reflects renewed optimism around its salty snacks growth and strong earnings guidance, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Hershey stands today.
- Size: Hershey is a $46 Bil company with $11 Bil in revenue currently trading at $224.38.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 4.7% and operating margin of 17.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.13 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.09
- Valuation: Hershey stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 33.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 25.6
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell HSY Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is HSY stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose HSY stock falls 20-30% to $157 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- HSY stock fell 35.0% from a high of $276.35 on 1 May 2023 to $179.52 on 20 December 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $224.38 on 5 February 2026 $224.38
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- HSY stock fell 30.8% from a high of $160.95 on 4 March 2020 to $111.43 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 March 2021
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -30.8% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 371 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- HSY stock fell 22.4% from a high of $115.45 on 19 December 2017 to $89.54 on 2 May 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 5 April 2019
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -22.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 338 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- HSY stock fell 45.3% from a high of $56.22 on 5 April 2007 to $30.75 on 10 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 12 April 2011
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -45.3% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 763 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about HSY stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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