With Hershey Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside?
Hershey (HSY) stock is up 14% in last week. The rally reflects renewed optimism around its salty snacks growth and strong earnings guidance, but big moves like this often invite a tougher question: is the stock truly resilient when markets reverse?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where Hershey stands today.
- Size: Hershey is a $46 Bil company with $11 Bil in revenue currently trading at $224.38.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 4.7% and operating margin of 17.0%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.13 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.09
- Valuation: Hershey stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 33.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 25.6
These metrics point to a Moderate operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Unattractive. For details, see Buy or Sell HSY Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors chasing this rally: how resilient is HSY stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose HSY stock falls 20-30% to $157 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- HSY stock fell 35.0% from a high of $276.35 on 1 May 2023 to $179.52 on 20 December 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $224.38 on 5 February 2026 $224.38
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -35.0% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- HSY stock fell 30.8% from a high of $160.95 on 4 March 2020 to $111.43 on 23 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 March 2021
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -30.8% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 371 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- HSY stock fell 22.4% from a high of $115.45 on 19 December 2017 to $89.54 on 2 May 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 5 April 2019
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -22.4% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 338 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- HSY stock fell 45.3% from a high of $56.22 on 5 April 2007 to $30.75 on 10 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 12 April 2011
| HSY | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -45.3% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 763 days | 1,480 days |
Feeling jittery about HSY stock? Consider portfolio approach.
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