With HP Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk?

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HPQ: HP logo
HPQ
HP

HP (HPQ) stock is down 13.0% in 21 trading days. The recent slide reflects weak FY26 guidance and rising memory costs amid shrinking printing margins, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?

Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where HP stands today.

  • Size: HP is a $20 Bil company with $55 Bil in revenue currently trading at $21.66.
  • Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 3.2% and operating margin of 6.6%.
  • Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.53 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.09
  • Valuation: HP stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 8.1 and P/EBIT multiple of 6.3
  • Has returned (median) -3.8% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See HPQ Dip Buy Analysis.

These metrics point to a Weak operational performance, alongside Low valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell HPQ Stock

That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is HPQ stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose HPQ stock falls another 20-30% to $15 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.

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2022 Inflation Shock

  • HPQ stock fell 38.8% from a high of $40.34 on 1 June 2022 to $24.69 on 12 October 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
  • The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
  • The highest the stock has reached since then is $39.30 on 25 November 2024 , and currently trades at $21.66

  HPQ S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -38.8% -25.4%
Time to Full Recovery Not Fully Recovered 464 days

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

  • HPQ stock fell 43.9% from a high of $23.35 on 25 February 2020 to $13.11 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 December 2020

  HPQ S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -43.9% -33.9%
Time to Full Recovery 261 days 148 days

 
2018 Correction

  • HPQ stock fell 39.3% from a high of $26.42 on 4 October 2018 to $16.03 on 10 October 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 8 February 2021

  HPQ S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -39.3% -19.8%
Time to Full Recovery 487 days 120 days

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

  • HPQ stock fell 52.2% from a high of $23.71 on 6 November 2007 to $11.34 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 March 2010

  HPQ S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -52.2% -56.8%
Time to Full Recovery 381 days 1,480 days

 
Feeling jittery about HPQ stock? Consider portfolio approach.

Stock Picking Falls Short Against Multi Asset Portfolios

Stocks soar and sink but bonds commodities and other assets balance the ride. A multi asset portfolio keeps returns steadier and reduces single market risk.

The asset allocation framework of Trefis’ Boston-based, wealth management partner yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Our partner’ strategy now includes Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices