Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise Stock Surge or Sink After Its Upcoming Earnings?

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. Historically, HPE stock has responded favorably to earnings announcements. Over the past five years, the stock has shown a positive one-day return in 63% of instances following results, with a median gain of 3.4% and a maximum single-day jump of 10.7%.

While the actual stock reaction will heavily depend on how the results align with consensus estimates and market expectations, understanding these historical patterns can offer an edge, especially for event-driven traders. There are two main strategies to leverage this information: either position yourself before the earnings release based on historical odds, or analyze the immediate and medium-term correlations post-earnings to guide your trading decisions.

For the upcoming report, analysts are projecting earnings of $0.33 per share on sales of $7.5 billion. This compares to the year-ago quarter, where HPE reported earnings of $0.42 per share on sales of $7.2 billion. Looking at the company’s fundamentals, HPE currently has a market capitalization of $23 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $31 billion in revenue, achieving operational profitability with $2.4 billion in operating profits and a net income of $2.8 billion. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Buy, Sell, or Hold HIMS Stock?

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Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 63% of the time.
• Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 12 positive returns = 3.4%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -5.2%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

HPE 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

HPE Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Hewlett Packard Enterprise stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Hewlett Packard Enterprise. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

HPE Correlation With Peer Earnings

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