Will Hologic Stock Grow Further After A 7% Rise In A Month?

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Hologic (NASDAQ: HOLX), a medical devices company focused on women’s health, has seen a 7% rise over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is up just 12% over the last year. Hologic has benefited from an increase in its installed base of Panther systems, after the U.S. FDA approved the company’s Covid-19 test last year. With a rise in vaccination rates for Covid-19, the demand for testing will gradually decline going forward. However, for Hologic, its Panther systems can be used for several other tests, and once installed, it will generate recurring services revenues for the company. In fact, the company’s installed base of around 2,600 devices reflect a large 40% growth from pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, last month, Hologic completed the acquisition of Mobidiag – an acute-care molecular diagnostics company – for $808 million, enhancing Hologic’s existing diagnostics offerings.

However, now that HOLX stock has seen a rise of 7% in twenty-one trading days, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in HOLX stock over the next month. Out of 511 instances in the last ten years that HOLX stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 7% or more, 309 of them resulted in HOLX stock rising over the subsequent one month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 309 out of 511, or about 60% chance of a rise in HOLX stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Hologic Stock Chances of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  1. After moving -3.0% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 57% of the occasions.
  2. After moving -1.9% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 58% of the occasions
  3. After moving 6.6% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 60% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Hologic (HOLX) Stock Return: AI Predicts HOLX Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Hologic (HOLX) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500

  • Five-Day Return: SPY highest at 0.4%; HOLX lowest at -3%
  • Ten-Day Return: HSIC highest at 3.8%; HOLX lowest at -1.9%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: COO highest at 7.7%; HSIC lowest at -0.8%

While HOLX stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Mettler vs Abbott.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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