What To Expect From Harley-Davidson’s Full Year Results?

by Trefis Team
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) will release its 2018 fourth quarter and full year financial results on January 29, 2019. The conference call to discuss the results will be at 9:00am EST. The market expects the company to post revenue of higher than $5 billion, approximately 3-4% growth year on year (YOY). The consensus expectations of earnings are around $3.85, for the Fiscal Year 2018. The company posted a good third quarter with $1.32 billion in revenue, a growth of 14.3% year on year. Earnings were reported as $0.68.


We have a price estimate of $46 per share for the company. Our key expectations for the company’s full-year worldwide shipments and 2018 results are highlighted in our interactive dashboard analysis – Our Outlook For Harley-Davidson in FY 2018. You can make changes to our assumptions to arrive at your own fair price estimate for the company.


After reporting a decline in motorcycle shipments in the first two quarters the company had reported a 16.7% increase year on year (YOY) and they have estimated for the 4th quarter shipments in the range of 45,800-50,800 (231,000 to 236,000 for FY 2018). The US retail sales have dropped by 13.3% YOY while the international sales went up by 2.6% YOY in the 3rd quarter.

The company remains committed to the plan of enhancing its reach in the international market and grow its share in annual volume to 50%. The company had downgraded its profit outlook for the Fiscal Year 2018 after Quarter 2 results. Operating margin was reduced to a range between 9-10% against an initial guidance of 9.5%-10.0%. This is reflective of the impact of the imposed trade tariffs in the US and Europe. The company’s bottom-line is also expected to remain weak as a consequence of rising raw material prices.

Overall Harley-Davidson didn’t start the year well but in Quarter 3 it seemed to get a bit of momentum and we expect that they will end the year with a good platform to grow further in Fiscal Year 2019.


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