Now is not the time to buy Hilton Worldwide stock

We believe there is a near-equal mix of good and bad in HLT stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its Very High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive. Here is our multi-factor assessment.

But no matter how attractive, investing in a single stock carries high risk. Trefis High Quality Portfolio and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $64 Bil in market cap, Hilton Worldwide provides global hospitality services by owning, managing, developing, leasing, and franchising approximately 6,800 hotels and resorts with one million rooms across 122 countries.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how HLT is valued vs broader market. For more details see: HLT Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Moderate

• Hilton Worldwide has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 15.4% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 6.3% from $11 Bil to $11 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 6.3% to $3.1 Bil in the most recent quarter from $3.0 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how HLT is growing vs broader market. For more details see: HLT Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Strong

• HLT last 12 month operating income was $2.4 Bil representing operating margin of 21.1%
• With cash flow margin of 20.5%, it generated nearly $2.4 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, HLT generated nearly $1.6 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 13.8%

This table highlights how HLT profitability vs broader market. For more details see: HLT Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• HLT Debt was $12 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $64 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 18.2%
• HLT Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $371 Mil of $16 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 2.3%

[4] Downturn Resilience Is Very Weak

HLT has fared much worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• HLT stock fell 32.7% from a high of $163.14 on 19 April 2022 to $109.75 on 6 July 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 November 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $278.65 on 14 July 2025 , and currently trades at $271.73

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• HLT stock fell 50.9% from a high of $113.92 on 17 January 2020 to $55.94 on 3 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 8 January 2021

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read HLT Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.