How Will Hims & Hers Health Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, August 4, 2025. Historically, HIMS stock has reacted negatively to earnings announcements. Since 2021, the stock has experienced a negative one-day return in 53% of instances following results. The median one-day decline has been -5.8%, with a maximum one-day drop of -22.3%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can be advantageous. While the actual results relative to consensus and expectations will be crucial, there are two primary strategies to consider:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical odds and take a position before the earnings release.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to guide your positioning.

Analysts anticipate HIMS to report earnings of $0.23 per share on sales of $552 million. This would represent significant growth compared to the same quarter last year, which saw earnings of $0.16 per share on sales of $315 million. A potential positive factor for Hims & Hers’ sales growth momentum is the reported underperformance of Novo Nordisk’s weight loss drug in the U.S. due to the availability of compounded versions.

Looking at the fundamentals, HIMS has a market capitalization of $15 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $1.8 billion in revenue and was operationally profitable, reporting $110 million in operating profits and a net income of $164 million.

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Hims & Hers Health’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
• This percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 8 positive returns = 15%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -5.8%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

HIMS 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

HIMS Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

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