How Will Heico Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Heico (NYSE:HEI) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, December 18, 2025. The company has $43 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $959 Mil in operating profits and net income of $642 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Heico’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 53% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.6%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/25/2025 | 8.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| 5/27/2025 | 7.4% | 8.9% | 17.3% |
| 2/26/2025 | 13.9% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| 12/17/2024 | -8.7% | -7.6% | -7.5% |
| 8/26/2024 | 0.6% | 0.7% | 6.8% |
| 5/28/2024 | 0.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% |
| 2/26/2024 | -2.7% | -2.4% | -4.3% |
| 12/18/2023 | 0.1% | -1.9% | -3.9% |
| 8/28/2023 | -1.4% | -0.5% | -4.5% |
| 5/22/2023 | -7.9% | -11.1% | -3.3% |
| 2/27/2023 | -5.2% | -0.0% | -3.5% |
| 12/19/2022 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 10.3% |
| 8/29/2022 | -2.0% | -4.0% | -7.1% |
| 5/23/2022 | 0.4% | 6.4% | -5.1% |
| 2/23/2022 | 2.6% | 9.8% | 12.7% |
| 12/15/2021 | -3.5% | -0.3% | 8.1% |
| 8/24/2021 | -1.0% | -2.5% | 1.9% |
| 5/25/2021 | 0.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 12/21/2020 | -2.0% | -0.3% | -2.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -2.2% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 13.9% | 18.1% | 18.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -11.1% | -7.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 4.3% | 7.6% | -16.1% |
| 3Y History | 8.6% | 5.0% | -15.4% |
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