How Will W.W. Grainger Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 7, 2026. The company has $54 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.5 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.7 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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W.W. Grainger’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 68% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.4%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -4.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.4% | 8.8% | 5.0% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.4% | -0.4% | 0.8% |
| 8/1/2025 | -10.3% | -9.3% | -2.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.8% | 1.9% | 6.4% |
| 1/31/2025 | -5.6% | -7.2% | -11.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 0.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | -3.5% | -2.6% | -0.7% |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.1% | -4.0% | -0.2% |
| 2/2/2024 | 5.4% | 3.0% | 7.3% |
| 10/26/2023 | 3.3% | 9.5% | 20.2% |
| 7/27/2023 | -4.9% | -5.3% | -6.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | 5.5% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | 13.0% | 11.0% | 16.9% |
| 10/28/2022 | 7.1% | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| 7/29/2022 | 8.3% | 8.3% | 13.2% |
| 4/28/2022 | 3.9% | 1.9% | -3.3% |
| 2/3/2022 | 1.3% | -2.4% | -2.3% |
| 10/29/2021 | 7.5% | 11.4% | 15.4% |
| 7/30/2021 | -3.6% | -4.8% | -6.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.4% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 13.0% | 11.4% | 20.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.3% | -9.3% | -11.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 0.4% | 5.1% | 15.6% |
| 3Y History | 15.2% | 4.9% | -2.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of W.W. Grainger stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before W.W. Grainger. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| GWW Earnings Dates | GWW | FAST | AIT |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.4% | 9.3% | 4.1% |
| 10/31/2025 | 2.4% | -3.2% | -0.4% |
| 8/1/2025 | -10.3% | 1.3% | N/A* |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.8% | 0.6% | N/A* |
| 1/31/2025 | -5.6% | -3.2% | 2.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | 0.9% | 2.3% | -0.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -3.5% | 3.6% | N/A* |
| 4/25/2024 | -1.1% | -1.9% | N/A* |
| 2/2/2024 | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.7% |
| 10/26/2023 | 3.3% | -4.4% | N/A* |
| 7/27/2023 | -4.9% | 2.4% | N/A* |
| 4/27/2023 | 5.5% | 3.7% | N/A* |
| 2/2/2023 | 13.0% | 19.0% | 7.0% |
| 10/28/2022 | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| 7/29/2022 | 8.3% | 10.5% | N/A* |
| 4/28/2022 | 3.9% | -2.1% | N/A* |
| 2/3/2022 | 1.3% | -2.3% | -1.5% |
| 10/29/2021 | 7.5% | 6.6% | 1.0% |
| 7/30/2021 | -3.6% | 3.6% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 0.8% | 26.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after GWW
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