How Will Alphabet Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $4.2 Tril in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $403 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $129 Bil in operating profits and net income of $132 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Alphabet’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 3.2%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -6.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.5% | -6.6% | -10.4% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | 3.5% | 14.7% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.0% | 3.3% | 5.0% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.7% | 1.3% | 5.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | -7.3% | -10.2% | -16.5% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.8% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | -5.0% | -6.3% | -8.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.2% | 6.8% | 12.2% |
| 1/30/2024 | -7.5% | -4.9% | -8.6% |
| 10/24/2023 | -9.5% | -10.6% | -0.2% |
| 7/25/2023 | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.1% | 2.2% | 16.6% |
| 2/2/2023 | -2.7% | -11.8% | -11.7% |
| 10/25/2022 | -9.1% | -13.4% | -5.8% |
| 7/26/2022 | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| 4/26/2022 | -3.7% | -1.1% | -10.8% |
| 2/1/2022 | 7.5% | 1.3% | -2.7% |
| 10/26/2021 | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% |
| 7/27/2021 | 3.2% | 2.8% | 7.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 3.3% | 8.3% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -8.4% | -8.7% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 9.6% | 16.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -13.4% | -16.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 12.5% | 7.6% | 17.6% |
| 3Y History | -14.8% | 23.8% | 59.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Alphabet stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Alphabet. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| GOOGL Earnings Dates | GOOGL | NFLX |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.5% | -8.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | 2.5% | -11.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 1.0% | -7.6% |
| 4/24/2025 | 1.7% | 12.7% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.8% | 10.4% |
| 7/23/2024 | -5.0% | -0.0% |
| 4/25/2024 | 10.2% | -7.5% |
| 1/30/2024 | -7.5% | 14.4% |
| 10/24/2023 | -9.5% | 19.5% |
| 7/25/2023 | 5.8% | -10.4% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.1% | -2.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | -2.7% | 16.2% |
| 10/25/2022 | -9.1% | 20.8% |
| 7/26/2022 | 7.7% | 6.1% |
| 4/26/2022 | -3.7% | -43.1% |
| 2/1/2022 | 7.5% | -10.1% |
| 10/26/2021 | 5.0% | 4.6% |
| 7/27/2021 | 3.2% | -2.3% |
| CORRELATION | -33.9% |
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