How Will Fabrinet Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Fabrinet (NYSE:FN) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $24 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.9 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $378 Mil in operating profits and net income of $377 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Fabrinet’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 11%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -7.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/2/2026 | -10.2% | 0.5% | 12.9% |
| 11/3/2025 | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% |
| 8/18/2025 | -12.8% | -4.5% | 9.5% |
| 5/5/2025 | -7.3% | -2.5% | 8.3% |
| 2/3/2025 | -8.2% | -6.5% | -12.3% |
| 11/4/2024 | -3.9% | 13.1% | 0.9% |
| 8/19/2024 | 15.7% | 8.9% | -1.1% |
| 5/6/2024 | 10.8% | 16.4% | 28.5% |
| 2/5/2024 | -18.4% | -8.4% | 0.6% |
| 11/6/2023 | 6.1% | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| 8/21/2023 | 31.6% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| 5/8/2023 | -0.9% | -1.7% | 20.2% |
| 2/6/2023 | -7.7% | -4.0% | -8.1% |
| 11/7/2022 | 9.5% | 11.8% | 14.8% |
| 8/15/2022 | 14.9% | 11.6% | 2.1% |
| 5/2/2022 | -5.8% | -13.8% | -13.2% |
| 1/31/2022 | -10.2% | -13.8% | -11.3% |
| 11/1/2021 | 13.2% | 21.7% | 16.4% |
| 8/16/2021 | 7.8% | 10.6% | 19.4% |
| 5/3/2021 | -1.4% | -3.7% | 5.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 10.8% | 11.6% | 9.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -4.5% | -11.3% |
| Max Positive | 31.6% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -13.8% | -13.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -26.6% | -42.2% | -19.3% |
| 3Y History | -42.0% | -55.8% | -24.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Fabrinet stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Fabrinet. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| FN Earnings Dates | FN | CLS |
| 2/2/2026 | -10.2% | -17.4% |
| 11/3/2025 | 3.7% | 15.6% |
| 8/18/2025 | -12.8% | 12.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | -7.3% | 0.2% |
| 2/3/2025 | -8.2% | 20.3% |
| CORRELATION | 1.4% |
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