How Has The Surge In Gold Prices Affected Barrick Gold Stock?

by Trefis Team
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Barrick Gold stock (NYSE: GOLD) has increased almost 8% in the last one month and has outperformed the S&P 500 which was up 5.5%. If you look at the change over the last one week and ten days, the stock has declined on both occasions (-2.2% and -3.2%, respectively). The rise in GOLD stock over the last one month period was driven by the strengthening of gold prices. Global gold price per ounce has gone up from $1,750 to over $1,796, up 2.6% in one month. The increase in price was mainly as a result of weakness in the dollar index. Additionally, a weak GDP growth number reported for Q3 2021, which was lower than expectation, is likely to weigh on the dollar further, thus providing strength to precious metals.

Now, is GOLD stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is an equal chance of a rise and fall in GOLD stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on GOLD Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about Barrick Gold’s business, see the analysis on various sources of Barrick Gold Revenues.

Twenty-One Day: GOLD 7.7%, vs. S&P500 5.5%; Outperformed market

(23% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • GOLD stock increased 7.7% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 5.5%
  • A change of 7.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 23% likelihood event, which has occurred 567 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 567 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 285 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: GOLD -3.2%, vs. S&P500 3.6%; Underperformed market

(35% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • GOLD stock decreased 3.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.6%
  • A change of -3.2% or more over ten trading days is a 35% likelihood event, which has occurred 879 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 879 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 414 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: GOLD -2.2%, vs. S&P500 1%; Underperformed market

(36% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next five days)

  • GOLD stock decreased 2.2% over a five-day trading period ending 10/28/2021, much less compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1%
  • A change of -2.2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 36% likelihood event, which has occurred 897 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 897 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 420 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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