What’s Comes Next For Barrick Gold Stock After A 3.5% Jump In A Week?

GOLD: Barrick Gold logo
Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold stock (NYSE: GOLD) increased 3.5% in just the last one week and currently trades close to $22 per share. The recent rise has been driven by strengthening in global gold prices. After registering a sharp rise from $1,500/ounce in January 2020 to over $2,000/ounce in September 2020, gold prices have since then remained volatile and have, in fact, largely declined. However, with the recent surge in Covid positive cases and lockdowns being reimposed in some parts of the world, gold has again started becoming a lucrative investment option. This can be seen in the recent increase in gold price from below $1,700/ounce in April 2021 to almost $1,820 in August 2021. Just in the last one week the price of one ounce of gold has gone up $11, or 0.6%. As 94% of Barrick Gold’s revenue comes from the yellow metal, strengthening of gold prices has driven Barrick Gold stock higher. But will GOLD’s stock continue its upward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a correction in the stock more likely?

According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price data for the last ten years, returns for GOLD stock average 4% in the next three-month (63 trading days) period after experiencing a 3.5% rise over the previous one-week (five trading days) period. There is a 47% probability that the stock will give a positive return. But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding GOLD stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning to test GOLD stock chances of a rise after a fall and vice versa. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

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  4. With Gold Prices Firming, Is Barrick Gold Stock A Buy?
  5. Soaring Yields Hit Barrick Gold Stock. Is This An Opportunity To Buy?
  6. Should You Buy Barrick Gold Stock As Copper Production Soars?

IF GOLD stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next 21 trading days, GOLD stock moves an average of close to 1.4 percent, with a 51% probability of positive return over this period.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of GOLD Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for Barrick Gold stock higher after a drop?


Consider two situations,

Case 1: Barrick Gold stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: Barrick Gold stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for Barrick Gold stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

GOLD stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 1.4% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 2.5% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Barrick Gold stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?


If you buy and hold Barrick Gold stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For GOLD stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?


The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although GOLD stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

GOLD’s returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last 5 trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Barrick Gold stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.


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