How Will GE Aerospace Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Based on data from the last five years, GE stock has historically reacted positively to its earnings announcements. The stock has seen a positive one-day return in 60% of instances following the release. The median positive move has been 5.1%, with the largest single-day gain recorded at 8.3%.

For event-driven traders, while the actual results versus market consensus and expectations will dictate the immediate reaction, understanding these historical patterns can improve trading odds.

There are two primary approaches to utilize this information:

1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: Assess the historical probability of a positive move and position accordingly before the earnings are released.
2. Post-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the correlation between the immediate one-day return and the medium-term performance of the stock, and execute a trade after the results are published.

The consensus estimate for the upcoming report projects earnings of $1.46 per share on sales of $10.39 billion. This marks an expected increase from the year-ago quarter’s results of earnings of $1.15 per share on sales of $8.94 billion.

Financially, GE Aerospace has a current market capitalization of $319 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $42 billion in revenue, delivering strong profitability with $7.9 billion in operating profits and a net income of $7.8 billion.

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GE Aerospace’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

1. There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
2. However, this percentage decreases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
3. Median of the 12 positive returns = 5.1%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -2.0%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

GE 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

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