How Will General Dynamics Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $84 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $53 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $5.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $4.2 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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General Dynamics’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/28/2026 | -2.7% | -3.1% | -4.3% |
| 10/24/2025 | 2.7% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
| 7/23/2025 | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | -3.3% | -1.0% | 1.1% |
| 1/29/2025 | -4.2% | -2.0% | -4.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | -0.5% | -1.4% | -8.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | -3.3% | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| 4/24/2024 | -4.0% | -1.9% | 1.8% |
| 1/24/2024 | 4.7% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| 10/25/2023 | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.2% |
| 7/26/2023 | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| 4/26/2023 | -3.6% | -4.4% | -7.3% |
| 1/25/2023 | -3.6% | -1.0% | -1.7% |
| 10/26/2022 | -0.0% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| 7/27/2022 | 1.0% | 4.3% | 7.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | 1.3% | -1.5% | -7.1% |
| 1/26/2022 | -0.5% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
| 10/27/2021 | 0.6% | -1.4% | -2.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| 4/28/2021 | -0.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -1.4% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -4.4% | -8.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -27.9% | -6.9% | 40.6% |
| 3Y History | -56.0% | -15.1% | 22.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of General Dynamics stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before General Dynamics. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Earnings Dates | GD | LMT | NOC | RTX | BA |
| 1/28/2026 | -2.7% | N/A* | 1.5% | -0.9% | -1.2% |
| 10/24/2025 | 2.7% | -0.8% | 1.0% | 3.2% | N/A* |
| 7/23/2025 | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 4.9% | N/A* |
| 4/23/2025 | -3.3% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 5.7% | N/A* |
| 1/29/2025 | -4.2% | -0.7% | N/A* | -2.5% | -2.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | -0.5% | -1.0% | N/A* | 1.3% | 4.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -3.3% | 2.8% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 4/24/2024 | -4.0% | -0.2% | N/A* | -0.4% | N/A* |
| 1/24/2024 | 4.7% | -1.8% | N/A* | -0.1% | N/A* |
| 10/25/2023 | 4.0% | 1.5% | N/A* | 0.0% | N/A* |
| 7/26/2023 | 2.2% | -0.6% | N/A* | -0.9% | N/A* |
| 4/26/2023 | -3.6% | -7.9% | N/A* | -3.4% | N/A* |
| 1/25/2023 | -3.6% | 1.1% | N/A* | 0.5% | N/A* |
| 10/26/2022 | -0.0% | 7.1% | N/A* | 2.4% | N/A* |
| 7/27/2022 | 1.0% | 2.1% | N/A* | 0.0% | N/A* |
| 4/27/2022 | 1.3% | -3.2% | N/A* | -0.4% | N/A* |
| 1/26/2022 | -0.5% | 1.1% | N/A* | -1.5% | N/A* |
| 10/27/2021 | 0.6% | -0.3% | N/A* | 0.0% | N/A* |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.8% | 1.3% | N/A* | -1.2% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -32.7% | 69.0% | 31.1% | 73.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after GD
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