A 7-Day Winning Streak Has Liberty Media Stock Up 22%

FWONAYTD+18.6%SPYYTD+12.0%XLCYTD-7.2%
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Shares of Liberty Media (FWONA) have closed higher in each of the last 7 sessions, a cumulative gain of 22.0%. That added about $4.7 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $26.1 billion. The stock closed at $103.87 on Tuesday, November 10, its highest close of the past year.

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The Streak Next To The S&P 500

Returns for FWONA and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Tuesday, November 10 and including dividends:
 

Return Period FWONA S&P 500
1 Day 1.0% -0.4%
7 Days (Current Streak) 22.0% -0.8%
1 Month (21 Trading Days) 20.2% -3.6%
3 Months (63 Trading Days) 9.7% -2.7%
Year To Date 16.2% 10.9%
1 Year (252 Trading Days) 12.6% 13.1%

Is This Move About Liberty Media Or The Market?

The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 0.8% over the same 7 sessions, including dividends, against Liberty Media’s +22.0%. Over the past three months the stock is up 9.7%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 56 sessions of that window it was down 10.1%.

What The Numbers Say About The Rally

On the fundamentals, revenue grew 10.9% over the last twelve months, against a median of 9.1% for S&P 500 Communication Services stocks; its operating margin is 13.3%, versus a median of 21.1%; and the stock trades at 46.7 times trailing earnings against a median of 17.7. The numbers make the run harder to justify: margins below the median and a multiple well above the median. At this price, the stock is asking a lot of the business.

If you are looking for strength with more behind it than a hot tape, our Guidance Momentum screen surfaces the names where management raised its own outlook.

Momentum Is A Tailwind, Not A Plan

Riding a stock that rises every day feels effortless, and that is precisely the danger: the same momentum that built this run can reverse without notice, and one name’s reversal should never be able to reset your whole year.

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