Can First Solar Stock Fall 30%?
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First Solar (FSLR) stock has fallen 30% or more within a calendar year in nine of the past ten years. A drop of that size would be nothing new for current shareholders. From the November 5 close of $195.76, a 30% fall would take the stock to about $137. The company’s sales may matter most for whether another decline occurs. Third-quarter sales fell 22.8% in 2026 from a year earlier, even as profit rose. So what is behind First Solar’s lower sales?
First Solar Shipped Fewer Modules To Outside Buyers
Management said on the company’s October 29 call that sales fell mainly because First Solar sold fewer solar modules to third parties than a year earlier. Executives also lowered the 2026 forecast for modules sold from the India facility and international Series 6 lines. They reduced the projection for modules finished in the U.S. as well, alongside the company’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.
India provides the clearest reason for the lower forecast. First Solar entered 2026 planning to run its India facility only at the volume that India-based buyers would take at acceptable prices. Management has now lowered the India volume forecast for the year by about 0.7 gigawatts in line with that plan.
How Far Has First Solar’s Sales Growth Slowed?
First Solar’s sales growth has stopped. Sales for the twelve months to September 30, 2026 were 0.7% below the prior year, following 31.2% growth in the twelve months to September 2025. This twelve-month dip is mild, but the trajectory within 2026 is not. Growth weakened after the first quarter of the year. Sales rose 23.6% from a year earlier in the first quarter, then fell 3.7% in the second, before the steeper third-quarter drop.
Customers are also delaying orders for later years. Management said buyers are pressing ahead with projects where they already hold modules, while deferring purchases for early-stage developments due later in the decade. First Solar’s own shift toward contracts for single projects may slow how fast the company’s multiyear contracted backlog grows. At the Malaysia facility, management is evaluating demand, tariffs and contract terms. A decision is expected in the first half of 2027 on whether to stop production or run that plant at or near its full 1.8 gigawatts a year.
How Worried Should First Solar Holders Be?
Holders should worry less than the third-quarter sales drop alone would suggest, because First Solar is earning more on the modules it does sell. Gross margin rose to 57.9% in the third quarter from 38.3% a year earlier. Management attributed the increase mainly to a higher share of U.S.-made modules in the mix.
First Solar also ended the quarter with 44 gigawatts of modules under contract. These agreements are worth about $13.5 billion, with deliveries scheduled through 2030. Management said the company has raised prices in new deals since the U.S. Section 232 proclamation in August. This included price increases on some deals still early in negotiation.
The stock fell 25.5% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 returned 9.9%. First Solar trades at about half the market’s multiple. The stock is priced at 11.3 times its last twelve months of earnings, against 22.9 for the S&P 500.
So holders have reason to watch the sales drop closely, but not to treat it as a crisis. This remains true as long as margins stay high and the contracts on hand still cover years of deliveries. New orders are the measure to watch. First Solar has booked about 1.4 gigawatts of new U.S. orders since its previous call. The company’s next report, expected in February 2027, will provide the next count of new orders.
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