Could First Solar Stock Drop Below $100?

First Solar’s stock (NASDAQ: FSLR) has fallen sharply — down nearly 50% from its highs of around $300 last summer to about $150 today. That kind of drop raises a serious question: Is this a rare buying opportunity — or could the stock fall even further? Say, to $100 or lower?

Why Did First Solar Fall So Much?

FSLR’s earnings for the past twelve months have come in at about $11.80 per share, implying a P/E of close to 13x post the drop— not expensive on the surface. But that assumes earnings stay where they are or grow. And that’s precisely what’s in doubt right now. Margins are under pressure. A year ago, FSLR’s net margins were 30%. More recently, they’ve slipped below 25%, and there is a possibility of further deterioration as pricing in the solar industry becomes more competitive — especially from Chinese manufacturers whose modules are flooding global markets at ultra-low prices. Meanwhile, revenue growth has slowed. After two years of 25%+ growth, guidance now suggests single-digit top-line growth through 2026. That’s a big reset — and investors have noticed.

What If Things Get Worse?

Let’s play out a bearish scenario. Suppose FSLR’s revenues drop by 20% over the next 2 years, as project delays, declining panel ASPs (average selling prices), and soft U.S. utility demand all combine to hurt the top line. Layer in margin compression — from 25% net margins to something closer to 20% — and earnings could drop from $11.80 today to just around $5.00 by the end of 2026. That kind of EPS drop — nearly 60% — would be damaging. If investors also decide that solar growth is slowing, and the P/E multiple contracts from 13x to, say, 10x, we’re suddenly looking at a stock price closer to $55. That’s more than 65% downside from today’s levels.

But Could It Rebound?

Absolutely. This is First Solar, not some unprofitable speculative play. FSLR is the leading U.S.-based solar panel manufacturer, with massive IRA-driven tailwinds. It has locked-in long-term supply deals with U.S. utilities. Plus, it benefits from the government’s domestic manufacturing push and import tariffs on foreign panels. In a more optimistic scenario, revenues stay flat or grow slightly — maybe 5% annually — while margins hold at current levels. In that case, earnings could stabilize around $8/share, and the stock might trade back to 22-25x earnings, implying a fair value of $175–$200 — with the possibility of some upside from here. A more bullish case — driven by a Fed rate cut cycle that revives large-scale solar projects and housing-linked demand — could push earnings back to $10/share by 2026, with a 25x multiple pointing to a $250 stock.

Bottom Line?

FSLR at $150 is not screaming cheap — not with solar demand under pressure and earnings at risk. But it’s not wildly overpriced either. If the solar cycle improves and margins hold up, this could be a compelling entry point. If, on the other hand, pricing power erodes and demand slows further, the stock might have more room to fall — perhaps toward the $100 mark. Either way, it’s a classic case of risk-reward. High-quality business. Big tailwinds. But also some very real near-term headwinds.

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