The Real Risk You Carry With Fox Stock
The company’s digital growth is real, but its history shows it falls harder than the market when a true shock hits.
Fox (FOXA) shareholders just felt a jolt. On its most recent session, 15th Jun, 2026, Fox stock fell 16.8% after reporting earnings. The market is weighing the company’s core business in broadcasting, which leans heavily on live sports like the NFL and the upcoming World Cup, and news from its FOX News division. On its latest call, management highlighted strong momentum, noting that excluding the impact of last year’s Super Bowl, “advertising revenue would have grown double digits,” while its streaming service Tubi saw revenue grow 23%.
That sharp one-day drop, however, is a small taste of a much larger risk. The urgent question for any holder is not about one quarter’s results, but about how this stock behaves in a genuine, broad market panic. How far does it typically fall, and how long does it stay down? Can you ride that out?
How Fox Behaves When the Market Sells Off
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History shows that when the market catches a cold, Fox stock tends to get a fever. Across the 15 market shocks it has traded through, the stock’s average peak-to-trough fall was about 20%, compared to about 16% for the S&P 500. It consistently falls more than the market. The single deepest drawdown was a 76% plunge during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis.
The stock has been hit hardest during periods of financial stress. Its worst drawdowns have occurred during what are categorized as “Credit & Liquidity Crises,” a group of events that includes the 2007 Credit Crunch, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, and the 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis.
When Fox Drops, How Long Until It Heals?
Surviving the fall is one thing; waiting for the recovery is another. For the shocks it has fully recovered from, Fox has taken a median of about 9 months to climb back to its pre-shock high. That means a significant period of being underwater is typical. The slowest recovery on record followed the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, when it took about 51 months to reclaim the prior peak. A past recovery, fast or slow, offers no guarantees for the next one.
Every Major Shock Fox Has Traded Through
Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.
| Shock Event | Stock | S&P 500 | Bonds | Sector | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | -10% | -8.6% | No decline | – | ~3 mo |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | -76% | -53% | No decline | – | ~51 mo |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | -27% | -15% | No decline | – | ~9 mo |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | -17% | -18% | -1.1% | – | ~1 mo |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | -0.6% | -0.2% | -17% | – | ~5 mo |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | -31% | -6.8% | -5.0% | – | ~37 mo |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | -20% | -12% | -4.4% | – | ~15 mo |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | -1.1% | -3.7% | -15% | – | ~8 mo |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | -4.7% | -19% | -2.2% | -20% | ~2 mo |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -47% | -34% | -0.7% | -30% | ~12 mo |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | -24% | -24% | -35% | -39% | ~31 mo |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -14% | -6.7% | -4.3% | -6.2% | ~17 mo |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -11% | -9.5% | -17% | -4.0% | ~10 mo |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | No decline | -7.8% | -1.2% | -6.4% | – |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -17% | -19% | -3.8% | -18% | ~6 mo |
[1] Summer 2007 Credit Crunch: Subprime hedge fund failures froze interbank lending, prompting an emergency Fed rate cut.
[2] 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis: Lehman’s collapse froze global credit, crashing every asset class and spiking unemployment.
[3] 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash: Greece’s deficit revelation collapsed European banks and triggered the May Flash Crash.
[4] 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion: US credit downgrade and European sovereign stress triggered a broad risk-off selloff.
[5] 2013 Taper Tantrum: Bernanke’s taper hint spiked Treasury yields, triggering emerging market capital flight.
[6] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[7] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[8] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[9] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[10] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[11] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[12] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[13] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[14] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[15] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.
Does the Old Pattern Still Fit Fox?
To be fair, the Fox of 2008 is not the Fox of today. Management is executing on a strategy built around its leadership in live programming, stating on its latest call that the company is positioned to deliver “record EBITDA this fiscal year.” Growth from digital platforms is a key part of the story, with Tubi revenue up 23% and the new Fox One streaming service exceeding early expectations. Cable distribution revenue also grew 5% in the latest quarter as price increases outpaced subscriber losses.
Still, the company remains tethered to the traditional media ecosystem. Analyst questions on the earnings call reveal investor concern about whether new digital initiatives can truly succeed in “fully offsetting the traditional pay TV declines” over the long term. The historical pattern of amplified downside remains relevant.
What This Means For Your Fox Position
To internalize what this risk feels like, consider the portfolio impact. That deepest 76% drawdown, had it occurred on a position sized at 10% of a portfolio, would have cut about 8% from your entire portfolio’s value. At a 20% position weight, the hit would have been about 15%. The question is whether you have the stomach for that kind of volatility. The one lever you control is exposure. Disciplined position sizing and genuine diversification are the primary tools for managing this specific, historically demonstrated risk.
That discipline is exactly what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is built to deliver: it pairs the upside of strong businesses with the stability of a 30-stock portfolio, sized and rebalanced with discipline, and has a track record of outpacing the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. Pairing a concentrated holding with an approach like this is how you keep compounding without a single drawdown derailing the plan.