How Will Fox Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Fox (NASDAQ:FOXA) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 11, 2026. The company has $27 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $17 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.2 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.9 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding FOXA stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
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Fox’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 68% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 5.2%; median of the 6 negative returns = -3.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.6% | -9.8% | -16.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.7% | -4.4% | 5.9% |
| 5/12/2025 | 4.3% | 11.6% | 8.9% |
| 2/4/2025 | 5.2% | 2.5% | 9.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 2.7% | 6.5% | 10.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.7% | 6.8% | 14.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | 2.6% | 3.1% | 6.3% |
| 2/7/2024 | -6.8% | -6.1% | -8.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.6% | 0.2% | -0.9% |
| 8/8/2023 | 5.6% | 2.3% | -4.4% |
| 5/9/2023 | -1.5% | -3.6% | 3.7% |
| 2/8/2023 | 4.4% | 5.0% | -1.6% |
| 11/1/2022 | 5.7% | 0.9% | 12.4% |
| 8/10/2022 | 3.4% | 8.2% | 0.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | -2.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| 2/9/2022 | 7.4% | 5.7% | -2.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | -0.6% | -2.1% | -13.3% |
| 8/4/2021 | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.4% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.7% | 11.6% | 14.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -9.8% | -16.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -1.2% | -6.1% | 0.3% |
| 3Y History | 16.3% | 1.0% | 15.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Fox stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Fox. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| FOXA Earnings Dates | FOXA | DIS | CMCSA |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.6% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.7% | N/A* | -2.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | 4.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | 5.2% | N/A* | 0.9% |
| 11/4/2024 | 2.7% | N/A* | -2.6% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.7% | N/A* | 1.1% |
| 5/8/2024 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| 2/7/2024 | -6.8% | N/A* | -5.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 1.6% | N/A* | 8.6% |
| 8/8/2023 | 5.6% | N/A* | 0.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | -1.5% | N/A* | -1.6% |
| 2/8/2023 | 4.4% | N/A* | -4.1% |
| 11/1/2022 | 5.7% | N/A* | -1.3% |
| 8/10/2022 | 3.4% | N/A* | -1.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | -2.4% | N/A* | -3.4% |
| 2/9/2022 | 7.4% | N/A* | 3.7% |
| 11/3/2021 | -0.6% | N/A* | 2.0% |
| 8/4/2021 | 6.6% | N/A* | -0.2% |
| CORRELATION | 61.5% | -20.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after FOXA
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