Which Dates Could Move Walmart Stock Most?
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Walmart (WMT) stock returned 11.4% over the past month while the S&P 500 slipped 1.0%. The rise follows a weaker stretch, and the stock is still down 7.3% over six months. Management has committed to putting its tariff refunds into lower prices through fiscal 2027, aiming for market share gains that last into future years. Below are the events most likely to move Walmart stock over the next six months, starting with its November report.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart’s fiscal Q3 2027 earnings report | November 2026 | Either way |
| More than $2 billion of extra fuel-related costs | fiscal 2027 (ends January 2027) | Against the stock |
| Tariff refunds spent on lower prices | fiscal 2027 (ends January 2027) | Either way |
| Drug price rules hold back Walmart U.S. comparable sales | fiscal 2027 (ends January 2027) | Against the stock |
| Walmart’s fiscal Q4 2027 earnings report | February 2027 | Either way |
Walmart’s November Earnings Report
Walmart is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2027 results in November 2026. Management has guided for sales growth of 3% to 3.75% in that quarter. Timing accounts for part of the slower pace. Management expects Flipkart’s Big Billion Days event to cut more than 100 basis points from sales growth in fiscal Q3 2027, as the quarter laps last year’s event, and to add a similar amount in fiscal Q4 2027, when this year’s event takes place.
The bigger question is Walmart U.S., the company’s largest segment, where management expects sales growth to improve as lower prices turn into stronger sales. Walmart U.S. comparable sales rose 2.6% in fiscal Q2 2027 and are the number to watch in November. Drug price rules weigh on that figure: management expects them to cut about 125 basis points from Walmart U.S. comparable sales in fiscal 2027.
Higher Fuel Costs
Walmart’s fuel bill stands as the clearest risk over these months. On the August 20 call, management said it expects more than $2 billion of extra fuel-related costs in fiscal 2027 beyond its original plan. That is a sizable sum next to the $32.3 billion of operating income Walmart earned over its last twelve months. Its guidance assumes fuel costs stay at current rates, so it does not allow for a further rise.
Higher fuel prices are also pressing on shoppers. Management said customers were making trade-offs in June, and that is why Walmart leaned so heavily into lower prices. Operating income growth, guided at 2% to 4% in constant currency for fiscal Q3 2027, is the other figure to watch in November.
The Year-End Report In February
Walmart is expected to report fiscal Q4 2027 results in February 2027, closing the year in which it spent its tariff refunds on lower prices. On the August 20 call, management raised its full-year sales growth guidance to 4% to 5%, from 3.5% to 4.5%. Management also said it expects the cost of reinvesting the refunds to be largely contained within fiscal 2027.
Walmart gave its first outlook for fiscal 2027 in February 2026. On the August 20 call, management said adjusted earnings per share grew over 19% in fiscal Q2 2027 and that lapping that growth in fiscal 2028 will be a challenge. Full-year sales growth against the raised guidance is the measure to watch in February.
Can You Hold Walmart Stock Through These Dates?
Walmart stock’s largest fall over the past year was 23.5%, running from May 19 to August 27, 2026. Its worst single day inside that fall was a 9.2% drop on August 20, the day of its last earnings call. You can hold the stock through the next two earnings reports if your position size allows you to weather a drop of that depth without selling.
Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?
The next six months hold several dates that could move Walmart sharply. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.
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