FICO Fell 28% In A Month. What To Do Now?.

FICO: Fair Isaac logo
FICO
Fair Isaac

Fair Isaac (FICO) stock is down 28.2% in 21 trading days. Already own the stock? You might want to consider holding it. Planning to buy? This might be your opportunity. Consider the following data:

  • A $33 Bil company with $1.8 Bil in revenue currently trading at $1,343.12.
  • Last 12 month revenue growth of 14.7% and operating margin of 44.2%.
  • Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.1 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.1
  • Currently trading at P/E multiple of 57.5 and P/EBIT multiple of 40.6
  • Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 66.3% within a year. See FICO Dip Buy Analysis.

While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for FICO, see Buy or Sell FICO Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and FICO drops another 20-30% to $940.18 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.

Below is a deep dive into Fair Isaac (FICO) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly better than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.

FICO develops analytic software and data solutions enabling businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions through scoring and software services for improved transaction analytics.

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2022 Inflation Shock

  • FICO stock fell 38.2% from a high of $552.88 on 23 July 2021 to $341.44 on 9 May 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 November 2022
  • Since then, the stock increased to a high of $2,382.40 on 26 November 2024 , and currently trades at $1,343.12

FICO S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -38.2% -25.4%
# of Days for Full Recovery 185 464

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

  • FICO stock fell 50.9% from a high of $431.78 on 19 February 2020 to $212.00 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 July 2020

FICO S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -50.9% -33.9%
# of Days for Full Recovery 133 148

 
2018 Correction

  • FICO stock fell 28.6% from a high of $240.03 on 14 September 2018 to $171.50 on 24 December 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 13 February 2019

FICO S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -28.6% -19.8%
# of Days for Full Recovery 51 120

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

  • FICO stock fell 76.2% from a high of $41.67 on 19 January 2007 to $9.90 on 5 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 9 March 2012

FICO S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -76.2% -56.8%
# of Days for Full Recovery 1100 1480

 
Worried that FICO could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.