How Will First Horizon Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, January 15, 2026. The company has $12 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $887 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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First Horizon’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 13 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 13 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2025 | -9.4% | -9.7% | -5.3% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| 4/16/2025 | -1.6% | -1.0% | 15.4% |
| 1/16/2025 | -0.4% | -2.2% | 3.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | 4.1% | 3.8% | 20.5% |
| 7/17/2024 | -5.8% | -5.2% | -12.9% |
| 4/17/2024 | 1.9% | 7.0% | 14.9% |
| 1/18/2024 | 5.1% | 14.1% | 6.2% |
| 10/18/2023 | 1.8% | -3.3% | 15.0% |
| 7/19/2023 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 4/18/2023 | 1.3% | -4.1% | -40.9% |
| 1/18/2023 | 0.1% | -0.1% | 1.0% |
| 10/18/2022 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 7/19/2022 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 4.9% |
| 4/19/2022 | -0.7% | -2.0% | -5.6% |
| 1/20/2022 | -1.1% | -0.8% | 1.3% |
| 10/20/2021 | 1.5% | -1.4% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2021 | -5.5% | -6.8% | -1.3% |
| 4/21/2021 | 5.4% | 9.2% | 12.2% |
| 1/22/2021 | 1.5% | -0.9% | 15.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 8 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 12 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.1% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 5.4% | 14.1% | 20.5% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -9.7% | -40.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| 3Y History | 19.7% | 4.8% | 7.7% |
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