F5 Inc. Stock Set For Bounce After Dismal Post-Earnings Performance?

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F5 Inc. stock (NASDAQ: FFIV) is down 13% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500, which was down 1.4% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last week and ten days, too, the stock has returned -2.4% and -4.7%, performing worse than the broader markets on both occasions. FFIV announced Q4 and FY ’22 earnings last week, with revenue around $2.7 billion, higher than $2.6 billion in FY ’21. However, with COGS and operating expenses rising at a slower rate than revenues, despite a $7.9 million restructuring charge, operating income rose from $394 million to $404 million over this period. Despite this, with a drop in other income and a rise in the effective tax rate, net income dropped and EPS came in lower at $5.34, compared to $5.46 in FY ’21.

Now, is FFIV stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a strong 67% chance of a rise in FFIV stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on FFIV Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see F5 (FFIV) Stock Return. 

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Twenty-One Day: FFIV -13%, vs. S&P500 -1.4%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • FFIV stock dropped 13% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.4%
  • A change of -13% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 147 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 147 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 98 occasions
  • This points to a 67% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: FFIV -4.7%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Underperformed market

(17% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • FFIV stock dropped 4.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
  • A change of -4.7% or more over ten trading days is a 17% likelihood event, which has occurred 416 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 416 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 222 occasions
  • This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: FFIV -2.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.2%; Underperformed market

(25% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

  • FFIV stock lost 2.4% over a five-day trading period ending 11/2/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 2.2% over this period.
  • A change of -2.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 25% likelihood event, which has occurred 626 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years.
  • Of these 626 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 346 occasions.
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 FFIV Return -5% -45% -7%
 S&P 500 Return -6% -24% 62%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -4% -26% 194%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/3/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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