The stock price of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) one of the largest producers of copper, has declined by about 4% over the last week (five trading days) and remains down by 35% over the last month. This compares to the S&P 500 which remains down by about 7% over the last month. Copper prices are down from a high of about $4.86/lb in early March 2022 to about $3.50/lb currently, marking a decline of almost 28%. Although there are multiple long-term drivers of copper demand, including rising demand from the renewable energy sector and the electric vehicles market, the near-term outlook for the commodity is somewhat bearish. With inflation surging, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks have been hiking interest rates at a more aggressive pace and the markets are betting that this will hurt economic growth. The construction and electrical applications sectors – which are the largest consumers of copper – typically see activity cool off during downturns and this could impact demand and pricing for the metal. Separately, the recent Covid-19-related lockdowns in China, one of the largest copper consumers, have also impacted demand for the commodity, hurting prices.
However, now that FCX stock has seen a decline of about 35% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a rally imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in FCX stock over the next month. Out of 45 instances in the last ten years that FCX stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 35% or more, 33 of them resulted in FCX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 33 out of 45, or about 73% chance of a rise in FCX stock over the coming month, implying a positive near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Freeport-McMoRan Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
While FCX stock has declined recently, several peers in its sector still look like a better bet than Freeport. Check out how Freeport Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
- Will Freeport Stock Fall Further?
- With Copper Prices Falling, What’s Next For Freeport Stock?
- Why did Freeport-McMoRan Stock Lose 30% In Value?
- Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock A Buy?
- How Has Resistance In Copper Prices Impacted Freeport-McMoRan Stock?
- Amidst Strong Rally In Copper Price, Will Freeport-McMoRan Stock Continue To Shine?
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving -4.3% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 48% of the occasions.
- After moving -5.3% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 55% of the occasions
- After moving -35% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 73% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that FCX stock is likely to see gains in the near term.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Freeport has fallen 33% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can Freeport stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||3%||-18%||74%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||6%||-18%||221%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 7/10/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016