The stock price of Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) one of the largest producers of copper, has declined by about 11% over the last week (five trading days) and remains down by 17% over the last month. This compares to the S&P 500 which remains down by about 1% over the last month. Copper prices are down from a high of about $4.86/lb in early March 2022 to about $3.74/lb currently, marking a decline of almost 24%. There are a couple of factors weighing on the commodity, including China’s zero-Covid policy, which has resulted in stringent lockdowns in several provinces, hurting demand. Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve and other global central banks have also been hiking interest rates at a more aggressive pace to combat surging inflation, and the markets are betting that this will hurt global growth. The construction and electrical applications sectors – which are the largest consumers of copper – typically see activity cool off during downturns and this could impact demand and pricing for the metal.
However, now that FCX stock has seen a decline of about 17% over the last month, will it continue its downward trajectory in the near term, or is a rally imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or decline in FCX stock over the next month. Out of 213 instances in the last ten years that FCX stock saw a twenty-one-day decline of 17% or more, 109 of them resulted in FCX stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 109 out of 213, or about 51% chance of a rise in FCX stock over the coming month, implying a neutral near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Freeport-McMoRan Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
While FCX stock has declined recently, several peers in its sector still look like a better bet than Freeport. Check out how Freeport Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
- Freeport Stock Falls Further, But It May Be Time To Buy
- With Copper Prices Falling, What’s Next For Freeport Stock?
- Why did Freeport-McMoRan Stock Lose 30% In Value?
- Is Freeport-McMoRan Stock A Buy?
- How Has Resistance In Copper Prices Impacted Freeport-McMoRan Stock?
- Amidst Strong Rally In Copper Price, Will Freeport-McMoRan Stock Continue To Shine?
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving -11% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 49% of the occasions.
- After moving -24% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 45% of the occasions
- After moving -17% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 51% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that FCX stock is unlikely to see gains in the near term.
With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, Freeport has fallen 26% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can Freeport stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||-1%||-19%||83%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-3%||-22%||207%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 6/27/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016